Today's items show chokepoint disruptions and resource competition tightening in parallel. Strait of Hormuz transits fell to seven, supertanker earnings hit records, Houthi gains near Bab el-Mandeb threaten a second corridor, and Panama Canal transits are being cut. Asia-Pacific coal demand is forecast to reach a record as gas prices surge, while the Americas respond with new critical-minerals initiatives, including a Missouri rare-earth recycling plant and US authorisations for Venezuelan gold. Europe's regulators are scrutinising Chinese-controlled nickel assets, and sub-Saharan Africa sees oil and graphite projects advancing.
Value chains & chokepoints
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on Wednesday from 12 the previous day, below the 10-day average of 14. Supertanker earnings on the Middle East-to-China route reached a record of nearly $800,000 a day, and a US Gulf-to-Asia VLCC charter was offered at a record $29.5 million lump sum. Analysts expect daily VLCC earnings to stay above $100,000 into next year, with two-year leasing rates potentially rising 20% to 30%.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of Energy, as record tanker rates and reduced Hormuz transits show the conflict is disrupting oil logistics, not just prices.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: gCaptain
European regulators are expected to issue a statement of objections this month over MMG’s $500-million purchase of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel assets, according to Reuters. The European Commission is examining whether the deal could tighten Europe’s access to ferronickel, a stainless-steel feedstock. MMG, controlled by state-owned China Minmetals, could still propose concessions before the notice is issued.
Why it matters: The case illustrates how competition policy is being used to manage Europe's exposure to Chinese-controlled critical mineral supply chains.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Copper prices are approaching USD 15,000/t despite a broad surplus, because large flows into the US make the market feel tighter than it is. Benchmark assesses that 800kt of the 994kt global visible inventory is in the US. The market's direction depends on the next US tariff update, which could reverse the artificial deficit.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of trade policy, as the next US tariff update could turn the artificial deficit into an artificial loosening.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
The Trump administration issued 36 sanctions targeting Iranian aviation and companies supporting it, including Turkish, Malaysian, and Emirati firms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that anyone doing business with Iran's remaining airlines risks being cut off from the global financial system. The Office of Foreign Assets Control can penalise businesses that unwittingly supported Iranian aviation if they 'should have known'.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's sanctions theme: third-country forwarders now face liability even for unwitting support of Iranian airlines.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels, with supertanker earnings on the Middle East-to-China route at nearly $800,000 a day and a record $29.5 million lump-sum fee for US Gulf-to-Asia voyages. Hunter Group ASA says it is owed $55 million in a rate dispute. The surge follows attacks in the Persian Gulf, with Brent above $100 a barrel and freight rates more than doubled over the course of the war.
Why it matters: The record tanker rates illustrate the deepening global energy crisis as conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts shipping routes.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
Russia and China are pursuing selective strategic integration in space-related military domains rather than forming a formal alliance or joint space command. Cooperation includes missile-warning assistance, computer-based joint air and missile defense exercises, and satellite-navigation interoperability. There is no evidence of an integrated Russian-Chinese space command or anti-satellite force.
Why it matters: This matters for the Russia-China military cooperation theme because selective integration in space-related domains erodes US deterrence and complicates NATO planning.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
According to the IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update 2026, global coal demand is now forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing an expected decline. The Middle East conflict has driven up natural gas prices, prompting higher coal use in Europe, Japan, Korea, China and other markets, while a strong El Niño is expected to support demand in Asia. Global coal production is expected to decline in 2026 but remain above 9 billion tonnes.
Why it matters: This matters for energy markets because the Middle East conflict is reshaping global fuel choices, with coal demand reaching a record and prices rising.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
In the first half of 2026, Vietnam became the largest U.S. trade-deficit partner, with a deficit of $126 billion, a 45 percent increase from the same period in 2025. Electronics accounted for 87 percent of the growth in Vietnamese exports, driven by global tech companies rather than Chinese firms. Exports of apparel, footwear, and toys, sectors associated with Chinese investment, barely changed.
Why it matters: This matters for the trade policy theme because it indicates that tariffs on Vietnam would rest on a misreading of the trade data.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
China’s export controls are due to be reintroduced on 10 November 2026 unless the current suspension is extended or withdrawn. The April 2025 controls widened the gap between Chinese and ex-China prices for dysprosium and terbium, boosting non-Chinese producers. Recycling and diversification are gaining momentum but still face equipment, expertise and feedstock challenges.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of export controls because the November 2026 deadline would extend licensing requirements deeper into global rare earth supply chains.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Brent crude crossed $105 per barrel, rising over 4%, as Houthi militia captured the Red Sea city of Mocha and advanced toward the Bab-al-Mandeb strait. The escalation threatens to disrupt Saudi crude exports and heightens risks to global oil supplies. India, which imports about 90% of its crude, faces a higher import bill, with the April-July crude import bill already up 56% year-on-year to $63.37 billion.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security because the surge in crude prices threatens to inflate India's import bill and add to inflationary and fiscal pressures.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Houthi forces seized the Yemeni port city of Mocha and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands, gaining leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthi-run humanitarian operations center said Red Sea navigation was safe for all shipping companies except Saudi vessels. Brent crude prices jumped as much as 4% to $105 a barrel on concern over disruption to supply routes.
Why it matters: This tightens Houthi control over a critical maritime chokepoint, directly affecting energy security and global oil supply routes.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Bing News: Red Sea shipping attacks, The Straits Times
UKMTO reported that four projectiles struck two unidentified vessels near Khasab in the Strait of Hormuz, setting one on fire and leaving the other's status unknown. Iran has not claimed responsibility, though it has conducted all previous similar strikes in the area. Brent crude rose to $109 by the end of the day, and infrared satellite sensing suggested possible disruption on the East-West Pipeline.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy security theme because renewed tanker attacks and possible pipeline disruption tighten an already undersupplied oil market.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
This week registered the largest wave of attacks on shipping since hostilities began on February 28. US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, and Washington says it has hit 10 Iranian tankers over the past week; Iran claimed attacks on two US vessels and eight tankers. One seafarer was killed on the tanker Hercules Star, and the IRGC says it will announce a new maritime sanctions zone around Chabahar.
Why it matters: The escalation shows economic warfare conducted through commercial shipping, with merchant vessels becoming instruments of pressure between states.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Iran-aligned Houthis seized Yemen’s port city of Mocha and advanced to the Hanish islands, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Anthropic said it disrupted several alleged malicious uses of its Claude models, including a Russia-linked espionage campaign and efforts by Chinese AI firms. A Russian strike on a shopping centre in Pavlohrad killed at least five people.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy security theme because Houthi gains around the Bab el-Mandeb could reduce supplies through a second major transit corridor and send oil prices surging.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
China, the world’s largest crude importer, is the main buyer of Iranian oil and thus exposed to Middle East supply disruptions. Premiums for Russia’s ESPO Blend crude for November delivery to China have reached record highs as Chinese refiners increase purchases amid shrinking Middle Eastern and Iranian supplies. Iran’s steady oil sales to China’s independent refineries may become a casualty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy-security theme because China's reliance on Iranian and Russian crude exposes its refiners to supply shocks from overlapping conflicts.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
A joint NATO operation found evidence that Russia's GUGI has developed a method to disable seabed fiber-optic cables without leaving traces. Russian submarines associated with GUGI were tracked off Svalbard in a trial run simulating the technology; a NATO task force intercepted the exercise. The report follows a UK announcement that it had disrupted Russian plans against subsea cables.
Why it matters: The episode illustrates the hybrid warfare challenge of attribution in attacks on critical subsea infrastructure.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Sub-Saharan Africa
A Somaliland delegation lobbied during the UN General Assembly, which began on 8 September 2026. President Abdirahman Irro met associates of Donald Trump, including John Peter Pham and Tibor Nagy. Somaliland presents itself as a security partner, and only Israel has recognised it so far.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of recognition, showing how an unrecognised state uses lobbying to gain international legitimacy.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
The headquarters of the Alliance of Sahel States' united force is at Niamey's Base Aérienne 101, which has been attacked three times this year without the force mobilising. The latest incident, on the night of 28–29 August, involved mutineers from the Nigerien army's special forces targeting the presidency, state television, and the base.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of military alliances, as the attack on the alliance's headquarters without mobilisation exposes the operational limits of the Alliance of Sahel States.
geostrategy military basing
Chemical weapons experts have called for an international inquiry into allegations that Sudan's military developed and used chlorine bombs. Former investigators said material examined in a media probe appeared consistent with a rudimentary chemical weapons programme. The OPCW said several countries had made a formal request to obtain clarification from Sudan regarding the allegations.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of international security, as it underscores the difficulty of verifying chemical weapons allegations and enforcing the Chemical Weapons Convention.
geostrategy military basing
According to NOAA, a 'super El Niño' has more than a 90% chance of being exceptionally intense, potentially the strongest in 150 years, and its effects could last until early 2027. The phenomenon is poised to strike an African continent whose room for manoeuvre has shrunk since the last major climate episode.
Why it matters: This matters for the climate theme: the projected record intensity and extended duration of El Niño will hit African economies with diminished room for manoeuvre.
water
Total Graphite engaged Lycopodium Minerals Africa to review and update feasibility work on the Montepuez Graphite Project in Mozambique. Lycopodium will re-examine the process design and flowsheet for the site. Initial results are targeted for November 2026, with a second phase to update the feasibility study expected before attempts to secure project finance and a view to resuming construction in 2027.
Why it matters: This update under the critical minerals theme shows a graphite project advancing toward financing and construction.
critical minerals
TotalEnergies announced a discovery in Block 17 offshore Angola, to be tied back to the Pazflor FPSO and adding 6,000 barrels per day of production capacity. The company also signed concession agreements for exploration blocks 17/25 and 32/21 in the Lower Congo Basin and a preliminary farm-in agreement for blocks in the Benguela basin. Separately, QatarEnergy announced a concession agreement for blocks 8 and 22 with Shell and Sonangol.
Why it matters: This underscores the briefing's theme of exploration, with major oil companies expanding their Angolan offshore portfolios.
geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Offshore Energy
Americas
The US is exploring ways to increase its access to Venezuela’s minerals, including gold, as part of a broader effort to expand involvement in the country’s resource sectors. Options under review include a draft executive order on critical minerals, and the Treasury Department has issued authorisations for transactions involving Venezuelan gold and other minerals. The effort is part of a wider strategy to align Venezuela’s resources with Washington’s interests and counter Chinese influence in Latin America.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing theme of critical minerals and resource competition in Latin America.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The Panama Canal Authority will reduce daily transits from 34 to 32 on September 15, after already cutting Neopanamax draft limits, citing below-average rainfall and El Niño forecasts. The restrictions come as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic and Suez Canal transits remain far below pre-disruption levels, leaving the Cape of Good Hope as the main alternative. A record $5.3 million bid for a Panama slot indicates operators are pricing the scarcity of all three chokepoints.
Why it matters: This matters because it demonstrates how a single chokepoint's scarcity compounds across the global chokepoint map.
chokepoint maritime · water
US Central Command struck three Iranian tankers on September 5 and, after the IRGC targeted a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles, said it destroyed five more tankers. The strikes are part of Operation Epic Fury, alongside a naval blockade and sanctions, which the article says has crippled Iran’s ability to harm the United States and its allies. Iranian officials claim the regime is confident and considering escalation.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing theme of sanctions, showing that Washington is pairing economic restrictions with military strikes to degrade Iran's position.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Two companies, US Strategic Metals and Ionic Rare Earths, signed an initial agreement in September to build the first US plant for recycling rare-earth magnets, in Missouri, with a joint investment of $100 million. The plant will recover rare-earth elements from used magnets, including neodymium-iron-boron and samarium-cobalt types, using technology from Ionic Technologies previously tested in Ireland. The companies plan to finalise the agreement by the end of the year.
Why it matters: This bears on the critical-minerals theme, as the United States seeks to secure rare-earth supply chains outside China.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Crude prices have returned above $100 a barrel, and major banks and the US Energy Information Administration raised their 2027 price forecasts. S&P Global Energy concluded that Middle Eastern crude production will not return to prewar levels by the end of 2027. JP Morgan's Natasha Kaneva said oil demand has run about 5 million barrels per day below last year and could fall to its lowest since 2019 if the Strait of Hormuz remains semi-closed.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy transition theme because it suggests war-induced demand destruction, not deliberate policy, may be accelerating the peak in oil consumption.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk