Geostrategic Daily

The Africa Report · 10 September 2026

El Niño could cost Africa $20bn – here’s where it will hit hardest

According to NOAA, a 'super El Niño' has more than a 90% chance of being exceptionally intense, potentially the strongest in 150 years, and its effects could last until early 2027. The phenomenon is poised to strike an African continent whose room for manoeuvre has shrunk since the last major climate episode.

Why it matters: This matters for the climate theme: the projected record intensity and extended duration of El Niño will hit African economies with diminished room for manoeuvre.

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Record

Source
The Africa Report (tier 1)
Published
10 September 2026
Link
https://www.theafricareport.com/430376/el-nino-could-cost-africa-20bn-heres-where-it-will-hit-hardest/
Content depth
partial
Regions
sub-saharan-africa
Subregions
west-africa, east-africa-horn, sahel, southern-africa
Actors
NOAA
Edition
2026-09-11

Grounding

Verbatim spans from the source text that support the summary above.

more than a 90% chance of being exceptionally intense
potentially the strongest in 150 years
its effects could last until early 2027