Today's items show geopolitical fragmentation tightening its grip on energy and supply chains. In Asia-Pacific, Qatar and the UAE reroute LNG around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia and Vietnam sign an oil reserve deal. In Europe, the EU's proposed Industrial Accelerator Act ties public funds to domestic content, and a study warns of collapsing petrostate revenues. In the Americas, the US funds mining technology and signs critical minerals agreements with Colombia. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia expands cultural diplomacy and Rwanda advances its space sector. The common thread: states hedge and build resilience as the rules-based order frays.
Value chains & chokepoints
The Consultative Shipping Group, representing 18 major shipping nations, warned that geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade measures and shadow fleet expansion threaten the rules-based maritime system. The group cited recent disruptions including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Panama Canal drought restrictions and Middle East conflict, and called for stronger international cooperation and consistent enforcement of existing rules. It pointed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption as an example of the consequences of fragmented shipping supply chains.
Why it matters: This matters for freedom of navigation, as the CSG warns that geopolitical fragmentation and shadow fleet expansion undermine the rules-based maritime system.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Eighteen shipping nations in the Consultative Shipping Group warned in a joint statement that armed conflicts, trade wars and extreme weather are signs of a structural shift, not one-offs. They said shipping routes are increasingly instruments of leverage and risk, and that fragmentation undermines the rules-based maritime framework. The group also noted hundreds of ships are circumventing sanctions outside standard insurance, safety and transparency frameworks, creating a two-tier system.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of fragmentation: the group warns that when shipping supply chains fragment, the global economy fragments with it.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
BRICS finance ministers met in New Delhi to discuss a digital payment system. The IMF has sought information on a cross-border payments system discussed by BRICS that is aimed at boosting non-dollar transactions. India's central bank proposed linking BRICS countries' official digital currencies to ease cross-border trade and tourism payments.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing theme of digital payments, as the proposed systems are designed to facilitate non-dollar transactions.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Qatar and the UAE are using ship-to-ship transfers to reroute LNG cargoes around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, with three such transfers recorded in August off Oman and the UAE. The operations add more than $1 million and up to 35 hours per transfer. Gulf LNG loadings fell sharply, with Qatar exporting 18 cargoes in the first six months of the Iran war versus 509 a year earlier, though non-Gulf production offset about three-quarters of the fall.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because the blockade of Hormuz is forcing costly emergency transfers and exposing the vulnerability of global LNG supply to a single chokepoint.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The United States is enforcing a naval blockade to deplete Iran's financial resources, and Iran has responded with multiple missile attacks on US warships in the Gulf of Oman. The US has retaliated by attacking five sanctioned Iranian tankers. Iran has also tested a new anti-ship missile, the Qasem Basir, according to Iranian officials.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of economic warfare, as the blockade and counter-attacks are aimed at controlling Iran's access to revenue and essential imports.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime
The report argues that a growing number of U.S. and Indian companies are deploying Chinese open-weight models, and that Washington is weighing punitive measures against Chinese labs. It proposes establishing a U.S.-India corridor under the TRUST initiative to legally distill open-weight models from frontier U.S. models, while acknowledging challenges such as intellectual property and export controls.
Why it matters: This matters for U.S.-China technology competition, as the report contends that punitive measures will not eliminate demand for capable, cheap open-weight models or prevent Chinese models' adoption across the Global South.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Russia and Vietnam signed a framework agreement to cooperate on establishing a strategic oil reserve in Vietnam during President To Lam's visit to Moscow. Putin also said Russia was working to introduce visa-free entry for Vietnamese citizens. The two leaders launched a joint infectious disease research laboratory via video link.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, as the strategic oil reserve agreement expands bilateral energy ties between Russia and Vietnam.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Vietnam responded to U.S. tariffs and Chinese pressure by intensifying its hedging strategy rather than aligning with any great power. Its exports and GDP grew strongly in 2025 and 2026, and it reached a tariff deal with the United States while refusing restrictions on ties with China and expanding engagement with China and Russia.
Why it matters: Vietnam’s success shows that hedging remains a viable strategy for middle powers amid global disorder.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers, in the biggest declared wave of tit-for-tat attacks on shipping since the war began. The attacks sent Brent crude above 100 dollars a barrel and American diesel prices to a record high. Iran also fired ballistic missiles at a base used by American forces in Jordan.
Why it matters: This escalation underscores the theme of energy security as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz directly threaten global oil supply and prices.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
US forces attacked five Iran-linked tankers, including the aframax Riesco which sank, after Iranian attempts to hit a US warship. Iran's IRGC claimed it then targeted two US vessels, eight oil tankers and ten other ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The claims are unverified, and Iran warned crews in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to abandon their vessels.
Why it matters: Shipping has become a deliberate instrument of geopolitical leverage, and the erosion of international rules threatens to fragment global trade.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
A draft report on the European Commission's proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, prepared by three MEPs, proposes raising the Made in Europe and low-carbon content threshold for strategic sectors to 50% by 2036. The measures aim to ensure public funds support domestic industries, increase EU content in net-zero technologies, and introduce stricter definitions and component requirements to prevent circumvention.
Why it matters: This bears directly on the briefing's theme of EU industrial policy, as it ties public funds to domestic manufacturing thresholds.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Western sanctions imposed after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine have inflicted only limited pain on the Russian economy, according to the article. It argues that sanctions can still be effective if properly enforced, especially by restricting the shadow fleet of oil tankers that Russia uses to evade the G-7 oil price cap. The article notes that oil and gas extraction accounts for one-fifth of Russia's GDP and exports for nearly one-third of government revenues.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of sanctions, as it argues that properly enforced sanctions could still destabilize the Russian economy by targeting its oil revenues.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime
An E3G study warns that the global exit from oil could bring conflicts, migrations and economic upheaval. Oil revenues currently provide more than 40% of state receipts in 17 countries, and E3G projects an 87% revenue drop for Algeria and more than 60% for Nigeria. The researchers say without international aid these states cannot absorb the shock and call for exit strategies and North-South cooperation.
Why it matters: For the energy transition, the projected collapse of petrostate revenues raises the risk of state failure and forced migration that the transition itself does not yet address.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia announced the opening of new Russian Houses in eight African countries: the DRC, Senegal, Togo, Mali, Kenya, Madagascar, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Sierra Leone. The centres will be based on existing local structures and supervised by Moscow; five such partnerships were already signed in 2024. The agency Rossotrudnichestvo, under European sanctions for four years, also claims nine state branches on the continent.
Why it matters: The opening of Russian Houses in eight African countries illustrates how Moscow uses cultural diplomacy to expand its influence, a central theme of the briefing.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
The Gambian authorities are seeking more electricity from Senegal and Guinea. Reduced imports have left the National Water and Electricity Company (NAWEC), which operates the national grid, struggling to meet rising demand with its own generation.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing's theme of energy security, as cross-border electricity supply becomes a regional concern.
supply chain risk
Ghana aims to become a West African EV hub, but cars, factories, mines and data centres are converging on a power grid already under pressure.
Why it matters: This highlights the tension between industrial ambition and energy infrastructure in the energy transition.
green tech supply chain
Rwanda inaugurated a satellite teleport in Rwamagana last year; in June it became the first station in sub-Saharan Africa to receive certification from the global teleport association. The country launched its first satellite in 2019 and hopes to return to space in the coming years. The article also describes broader African investment in space, including the African Space Agency's coordination role.
Why it matters: This matters for the space economy theme: Rwanda's certification and planned launches illustrate African states' efforts to control satellite data and develop local space capacity.
geostrategy military basing
Sovereign Metals announced the results of a scoping study for recovering monazite rare-earth concentrate as a by-product at its Kasiya project in Malawi. The study estimates an additional pre-tax NPV8 of about USD 722 million for an incremental investment of USD 29 million, an IRR of 151%, and a payback period of about 18 months. It also completed an initial monazite mineral resource estimate of 524.4 million tonnes at 0.0132% monazite, containing about 69,000 tonnes of monazite.
Why it matters: This positions Kasiya within the critical minerals theme as a potential long-term Western source of strategic rare earths outside Chinese supply.
critical minerals
Ahmed Ibrahim Mufaddal, director general of Sudan's General Intelligence Service, said the war is a battle of the state against non-state actors and announced Khartoum's openness to objective dialogue with Chad, Ethiopia and eastern Libya. He identified three internal concerns: security, societal conflict and the economic situation. He also said the external axis had contributed significantly to the war's continuation.
Why it matters: This matters for regional diplomacy because Khartoum is coupling an offer of dialogue with Chad, Ethiopia and eastern Libya to accusations that external actors sustain the war.
great power rivalry
Americas
President Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end “immediately” after the US midterm elections, and that energy prices would fall once the vote was over. He accused Tehran of prolonging the conflict to keep fuel prices high. The war, launched on February 28, has lasted more than six months, and Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.
Why it matters: This bears on the energy markets theme because the president is tying the trajectory of oil prices and the war to the US election calendar.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: South China Morning Post
Chile produced about 23% of global copper concentrate in 2025 but its share of worldwide smelted copper production fell from more than 13% in 1990 to 4.2%. Its smelters operate at about 60% of nominal capacity, and about two-thirds of its concentrate exports go to China. Cochilco recommends improving operational continuity at existing plants before committing to new expansions.
Why it matters: This matters for the supply-chain theme because Chile's reliance on Chinese smelting transfers downstream processing leverage to Beijing.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation selected four projects for $73 million in funding through the Mine of the Future initiative. The projects, led by Innovative Wireless Technologies, the University of Arizona, the Curators of the University of Missouri, and Southern Methodist University, will establish testing grounds for mining technologies. The sites are intended to accelerate commercialization, support research and development, and provide workforce training.
Why it matters: This funding advances the critical minerals supply chains theme by using federal investment to move mining technologies from laboratory to field and reduce dependence on foreign adversaries.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
In this week’s episode, Miles Yu covers updates from the recent Group of Twenty meeting and the emerging clash between a coalition of 19 against China’s overcapacity and strategic industrial policy. He looks ahead to the Trump–Xi meeting in Washington, DC, and reviews the announcement of CCP purges, including a planned mass-dismissal of Central Committee members and officials at the party’s Fifth Plenary session next month.
Why it matters: The episode’s focus on the G20 coalition and the Trump–Xi meeting speaks to the Foreign Policy theme.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The IRGC said its seizure of a US underwater drone demonstrated the reach of its surveillance around Hormuz, claiming it captured the vehicle through intelligence gathering and operational planning. US Central Command said the Anduril Dive-LD had malfunctioned more than a day before Iran announced the seizure, and that it was an older model carrying no classified equipment. Anduril’s specifications list the Dive-LD as an autonomous underwater vehicle about 5.8 metres long, with advertised capabilities including ten-day missions and operations at depths of about 6,000 metres.
Why it matters: This incident illustrates the theme of maritime security, as Iran and the United States contest surveillance and operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
On September 8, the United States and Colombia signed two memorandums of understanding in Barranquilla covering civil nuclear cooperation and the mining of critical minerals and rare earths. The signing was attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, President Abelardo De La Espriella and Foreign Minister Omar Bula Escobar. Officials said implementation would begin within six months.
Why it matters: The agreements advance the critical minerals theme by positioning Colombia in US supply chains for batteries and clean-technology industries.
critical minerals · great power rivalry