The day's items converge on the use of leverage—sanctions, export controls, and chokepoint pressure—across Asia-Pacific and the Americas. Washington's new tariff authority targets buyers of Russian energy, while US-China talks on AI and rare earths precede a summit. In Europe, the Strait of Hormuz closure and Houthi advances threaten energy transit, and Arctic LNG 2 receives sanctioned equipment. Sub-Saharan Africa sees resource nationalism, with Kenya banning raw mineral exports and Zimbabwe weighing lithium export bans. These moves pull between strategic competition and supply-chain realignment.
Value chains & chokepoints
The US House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that imposes new sanctions on Russia and extends Iran sanctions for five years. The bill allows presidents to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on major importers of Russian energy and targets Russia's shadow fleet. It now heads to President Donald Trump's desk.
Why it matters: This matters for the geoeconomics theme because it shows sanctions being used to shape energy trade and state revenues.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy
The US House passed a bill granting President Trump new authority to impose tariffs on countries buying Russian petroleum products. The bill, which passed 262-159, now goes to Trump for signature after clearing the Senate last month. China, India and Turkey are among the top five purchasers that could face tariffs.
Why it matters: This vote highlights the theme of sanctions as a tool of economic statecraft, with Congress delegating broad tariff authority to the president.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy
On August 24, 2026, the Trump administration submitted to Congress a civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, triggering a 90-day review. The deal could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and has drawn criticism over proliferation risks. It is also framed as part of U.S.-China competition.
Why it matters: The deal exemplifies the return of nuclear statecraft as a tool for great power competition.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Australia has reached a free trade deal with the EU, has a UAE deal in force, and has a protocol with Singapore on essential supplies. The article argues that none of this matches the speed or scope of trade shifts elsewhere, and calls for prioritising plurilateral deals and partnerships with India, Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, the EU and the Gulf.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of trade, as it highlights the gap between Australia's incremental trade actions and the faster pace of global trade realignment.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Critical Risk Team partner George McLeod discussed recent developments in Africa’s Sahel region and Myanmar with host Adrian Pocobelli. McLeod described unexpected players operating in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger and shifting geopolitical dynamics affecting mining companies. He also examined Myanmar’s role as a major producer of heavy rare earths and the evolving India-China relationship in the rare earths sector.
Why it matters: This matters for the geopolitics of mining theme because it links geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel and Myanmar to risks for mining companies and rare-earth supply.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
Saudi Aramco has sold about 20 million barrels of crude to Asian refiners for pickup this month and next from just outside the Strait of Hormuz, after the shutdown of the East-West pipeline. The buyers included Chinese state-owned and independent processors and other East Asian importers. Aramco also delayed deliveries from Yanbu to some European customers and at least one East Asian refiner.
Why it matters: This illustrates how energy security is affected by the vulnerability of pipelines and maritime chokepoints.
chokepoint maritime · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Xi Jinping has purged much of the People’s Liberation Army’s senior command and is rebuilding it while preserving the appearance of uninterrupted strength. The United States shifted from warning of an imminent Taiwan invasion to embracing a “constructive relationship of strategic stability,” giving Beijing cover during the purge. The purge has degraded the command structure: only six of 27 full general or admiral posts have a confirmed occupant.
Why it matters: The purge and the truce show that strategic stability is being used as cover while Beijing rebuilds its military command.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
In the episode, Kishore and Shetty discuss the BRICS summit in New Delhi, including the consensus in the New Delhi Declaration and India's diplomatic win on Pahalgam. They also examine the tactical stabilization between New Delhi and Beijing, the Iran-U.S. stalemate, the Houthi advance, and the hedging by U.S. allies.
Why it matters: This episode illustrates the theme of the geopolitics of Asia by distinguishing tactical stabilization from realignment.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime
Oil prices in China hit record highs Wednesday as energy disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict affected the world’s largest market for imported crude. China had helped keep prices down by slashing imports, but an analyst said Beijing is “coming back off its crash diet.” Brent crude prices fell on reports that Saudi Arabia could partially restore a damaged pipeline within days.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy disruptions theme because renewed Chinese demand could amplify the price impact of Middle East supply threats.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
South Korea convened a first-ever summit with all five Central Asian leaders in Seoul on September 16, establishing a cooperation framework for the coming decades. The meeting produced bilateral deals, including $19 billion with Kazakhstan and potential $12 billion with Uzbekistan, and commitments on supply chains, mining, and AI/IT. South Korea became the sixth state to hold such a C5+1 summit in the past 18 months.
Why it matters: This deepens the geoeconomic competition for Central Asia's supply chains and critical minerals.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with only a handful of daily vessel crossings compared with more than one hundred before the war. The United States has pursued military and economic pressure against Iran, while Oman has held bilateral talks with Iran. Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to institutionalize its control, and the Atlantic Council proposes a GCC-led regional cooperative mechanism including Iran and Iraq.
Why it matters: This bears directly on the energy chokepoint theme, as the Strait of Hormuz's closure disrupts global oil transit and regional stability.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Yemen's Interior Minister Ibrahim Haidan warned that Iran is seeking long-term military influence over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by helping the Houthis build fortifications, operations rooms, and facilities for missiles, drones, and remotely guided boats. He noted that the Houthis had seized Hays, Al-Khokha, Mokha and its port before advancing toward Bab al-Mandeb and Mayyun Island. Security readiness was raised in Aden, Lahj, and areas behind the frontlines following the developments.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of maritime chokepoints, as Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb would threaten one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan remain heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries disrupted fuel exports to Central Asia and Mongolia, causing fuel shortages and restrictions. The crisis exposed structural vulnerabilities including landlocked geography and limited domestic refining capacity.
Why it matters: This illustrates the energy security theme: formal independence does not guarantee energy sovereignty, and dependency creates leverage for Moscow.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Two U.S.-sanctioned heavy-lift vessels, Glory and Bright, are carrying the final two power-generation modules for Arctic LNG 2's second train from China to Russia. The modules, designated 2-PGM-002 and 2-PGM-004, were loaded at Zhangjiagang port and would allow Novatek to complete Train 2's electrical power system, which has operated on a single string at roughly half its design capacity.
Why it matters: This shipment demonstrates that sanctions have not fully stopped Chinese equipment from reaching Arctic LNG 2.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Since 2022, more than 230 ageing tankers worth roughly £5 billion were sold by US and European owners into what became Russia's shadow fleet. Regulators in Washington, London and Brussels have responded with firmer guidance, treating flag hopping, STS transfers and AIS masking as red flags. In July 2025, the UK's NCA and OFSI issued a joint Red Alert warning on shadow fleet sanctions evasion and avoidance networks.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of sanctions, as it shows how regulatory expectations are shifting from counterparty identity to vessel behaviour.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
With the Northern Sea Route open, Russia can move oil and LNG along a corridor under its control, reducing exposure to interdiction and attacks. President Putin opened the Sever Bay Terminal, and sanctioned Arc7 tankers have begun serving it. After leaving the corridor, dark fleet sanctions evasion procedures and STS transfers remain necessary, including STS operations spotted east of Chongin in North Korea.
Why it matters: This matters for the sanctions theme because the NSR's protection ends at the corridor, so dark fleet STS transfers remain necessary to conceal cargo origins.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kenya plans to ban exports of raw minerals to develop local processing and capture more value. The ban would notably cover gold, and President William Ruto has announced three gold refineries in Kakamega and around Nairobi.
Why it matters: This is an instance of resource nationalism as African governments seek to control natural resources and capture downstream value.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Slow progress at two lithium sulphate production facilities is likely to force the Zimbabwean government's hand in handling a lithium concentrate export ban planned for the end of this year. The government had made resumption of suspended hard rock lithium exports conditional on firm commitments to bring lithium sulphate production in-country, with a nominal deadline of January 2027. A number of mines appear unlikely to achieve that deadline.
Why it matters: This illustrates the critical minerals theme of using export controls to compel domestic processing capacity.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Ethiopian Electric Power said exports to Kenya are expected to rise to 400 MW from 200 MW in December, and that Ethiopia is supplying 100 MW to Tanzania on a pilot basis. The $1.6bn World Bank-backed RETRADE-EA programme is moving into implementation, while the region's Day-Ahead Market remains stalled. The first phase centres on the Uganda-Tanzania Interconnector Project.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy-trade theme because physical export increases are advancing while the regional market mechanism remains unresolved.
supply chain risk
Unicorn Mineral Resources signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75% stake in Q Global Copper Namibia, holder of two exclusive prospecting licences in the Kalahari Copperbelt. The project area includes 5.5 million tonnes of historical surface tailings and approximately 100,000 tonnes of high-grade slimes. Initial consideration totals $368,637 (R6m).
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme because the Kalahari Copperbelt has drawn significant attention from international mining companies.
critical minerals
The Darfur region of Sudan is experiencing its worst drought since the 1980s, according to the deputy director of the World Food Programme, who said no such drought had occurred since 1984. The failure of the rainy season from June to September is causing the collapse of local agriculture and new waves of displacement in a region that already hosts 5.6 million displaced people. More than 40 percent of Sudan's population faces acute hunger, with the crisis worsened by civil war and El Niño.
Why it matters: This matters for the food security theme because the drought is deepening an already severe hunger crisis in a region affected by civil war.
water
Niti Aayog vice-chairman Ashok Lahiri called for further diversification of India's exports, saying it is key to sustaining growth and softening external headwinds. The June-quarter Trade Watch report showed Tanzania and South Africa entered the top ten export destinations, replacing Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. India's goods exports rose 16% year-on-year to $129.5 billion in the quarter, while imports grew 19.8% to $216.1 billion.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing's theme of export diversification as a response to external headwinds.
supply chain risk
Americas
Washington warned the Houthis through security channels and said it was not negotiating with the group. The Houthis’ outreach came after advances along Yemen’s western coast overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait; the gains pose a fresh threat to international shipping. In a UN Security Council session, the US called on the Houthis to halt their advance, withdraw from seized territory and stop launching attacks.
Why it matters: This matters for the maritime chokepoints theme because the Houthi advance threatens the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which carries 12% of global trade.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
ExxonMobil is close to signing a memorandum of understanding with Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA to discuss investment opportunities in oil fields, according to the Wall Street Journal. The move could mark the company's return to Venezuela after roughly two decades, and the fields involved are estimated to hold about 50 billion barrels. Talks may stall or extend beyond September, and ExxonMobil has shown particular interest in the PetroVictoria and Petromonagas fields.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy-geopolitics theme because it illustrates US policy steering American oil companies toward Venezuela to revive output and redirect exports to US refineries.
supply chain risk
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is ready to discuss shared risks related to artificial intelligence with China. The talks are scheduled for Sunday in New York with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and will focus on AI, trade, rare earths and other economic issues. The meetings are seen as a political and economic precursor to a Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of US-China technological competition: Washington is ready to discuss shared AI risks while maintaining its insistence on preserving American superiority.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The race for AI supremacy will hang over next week's meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Washington. The two governments are at odds over access to advanced chips, allegations of technology copying, and regulation of the AI industry. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng this weekend to discuss AI-related issues before the summit.
Why it matters: The AI rivalry between Washington and Beijing is now central to the bilateral economic and security agenda ahead of the leaders' summit.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Aclara's CFO said no industrial-scale heavy rare earth production facility exists outside China and that its Louisiana plant could cover a large portion of Western demand. The plant, Project Dynamo, is designed to process mixed rare earth carbonate from Aclara's Carina and Penco projects, with production targeted for the second half of 2028. China currently has export controls on samarium, terbium, gadolinium, scandium, yttrium and lutetium.
Why it matters: This matters for supply chains because it shows financing support for establishing heavy rare earth separation capacity outside China ahead of the expiry of the US-China trade truce.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: "rare earths" export, Bing News: Sahel militaire
The Wall Street Journal reported that a Chinese hacking firm used AI to make pilfered foreign government documents digestible for police, with targets including Russia and Pakistan. The United States is pressuring Mexico to exclude China's AI hardware exports by encouraging more North American content in servers and chips crossing the southern border.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of geoeconomics, as both the AI-powered cyber-spying and the export-control pressure illustrate the intersection of technology and international economic policy.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry