Today's items show the United States and China competing for leverage across critical minerals, technology, and maritime routes, with Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa as key arenas. Washington's sanctions on Russia and Iran, and its Arctic security agreements, contrast with Beijing's rare-earth curbs and expanding naval presence. Energy disruptions from the Red Sea to Hormuz are raising costs, while African pipeline and copper deals highlight new dependencies. The result is a geoeconomic landscape where chokepoints and strategic materials define power.
Value chains & chokepoints
The Kremlin said President Donald Trump's signing of a law expanding sanctions on Russia will hinder efforts to end the war in Ukraine and further damage bilateral ties. The law authorizes the president to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas. India's trade minister said New Delhi was studying the details of the tariffs.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of sanctions, showing how they can affect diplomatic relations and the course of the Ukraine conflict.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
South Africa is leveraging its position as the world's dominant platinum supplier to improve relations with both Washington and Beijing. The US and China both seek platinum group metals for industries ranging from automotive and defense to green hydrogen and data centers. Washington has imposed a 30% import duty on South African goods, while Beijing has scrapped levies on South African imports entirely.
Why it matters: This illustrates how critical minerals are becoming a central lever in geoeconomic competition between the US and China.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Iranian airlines will be shut down globally by September 23, and warned that airports servicing Iranian aircraft could be excluded from the dollar system. Earlier in September, the Treasury placed 27 Iranian airlines on its Specially Designated Nationals List. The Office of Foreign Assets Control also designated four entities in Türkiye, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan and suspended authorisations for overflights and non-US airlines operating US-origin commercial flights to Iran.
Why it matters: This matters because it demonstrates the dollar system's role as a sanctions enforcement mechanism, a central theme of the briefing.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Middle East Eye
Japan, the US and South Korea are preparing to sign a memorandum covering maritime cooperation and energy supply in the Arctic. The draft would establish a trilateral working framework focused on Arctic maritime use, energy resources and economic security. South Korea completed its first containership voyage through the Northern Sea Route this month.
Why it matters: This matters for the Arctic shipping theme because the trilateral pact formalises state involvement as Arctic routes move from concept to commercial experimentation.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Nigeria’s solid minerals development minister, Dele Alake, led a delegation to the White House in early August. US President Donald Trump was preparing to host a roundtable with mining industry leaders to reduce American dependence on China-dominated critical-mineral supply chains.
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme, as it shows the US seeking to counter China's dominance in Nigeria's mineral sector.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in New York ahead of a Trump-Xi summit. China accused the United States of double standards after Trump threatened an additional 100 percent tariff. Bessent criticized Beijing's rare earth export curbs as "China versus the world."
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of trade, given the tariff threat and rare earth export curbs.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Taiwan Coast Guard plans October visit to the Philippines, with one ship carrying 100 officers. The Philippines opened a Coast Guard post in its far north, citing China's military build-up near Taiwan. Three Chinese coast guard vessels were monitored off northern Philippine islands near Taiwan, and China conducted its first military drills with two operational aircraft carriers in the South China Sea.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of maritime security, as coast guard and naval activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea affect regional stability.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Ship-to-ship transfers off Oman have allowed Gulf producers to keep exporting crude despite the Iran war, with Hormuz exports reaching about 6.5 million bpd in September. The workaround is costly: VLCC freight rates to China have surged above $30 per barrel, and freight now represents over a quarter of the cost. Producers are absorbing part of the increased transportation costs through deeper discounts.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security: the region's oil exports continue only through costly workarounds, making global supply more expensive and fragile.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · geostrategy military basing
ASPI launched the China Little Giants Tracker, a searchable database of high-tech SMEs designated under Beijing's Little Giants program. More than 19,000 companies have been designated since 2019 across seven national batches. Many are already in Western supply chains and households, and some have defence connections or components found in Russian weapons.
Why it matters: The tracker matters for supply chains because Little Giants are embedded in Western critical infrastructure and can create dependencies that Beijing can tighten, price or withhold.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US-China ties are in a stalemate ahead of a leaders' summit in Washington, according to the article. Trump plans to personally greet Xi on the tarmac at Andrews Air Base, but expectations for the summit are low. The two sides are at odds over trade, technology, Taiwan, and other issues.
Why it matters: This matters for US-China relations because it indicates that the summit is unlikely to break the existing stalemate.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Houthi militants and Saudi-backed forces fought for strategic positions in Yemen on Monday, with battles potentially determining control over areas that dominate a critical shipping chokepoint. Advances by the Iran-backed Houthis have kept the outlook for supply flows from Saudi Arabia uncertain. Oil prices dropped on Monday despite continued supply disruption risks, as Saudi exports recovered to over 4 million barrels per day in September.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, as control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait directly affects the flow of Saudi oil to global markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea needs more than 10 warships, while diplomats report six currently operating. She noted the Houthis have made rapid advances along the Red Sea coast and that the situation is more grave than when the mission was established. Kallas has asked EU member states to increase their contributions.
Why it matters: This matters for maritime security because the EU's Aspides mission lacks sufficient naval and air assets to address heightened Houthi threats in the Red Sea.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: The Straits Times
Diesel prices in Europe and the United States have reached record highs as wars in Iran and Ukraine cut exports from major producers. European diesel futures closed at an all-time high, and U.S. average retail diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time. Middle East diesel exports halved from March to August compared with a year earlier, and refineries are operating near capacity.
Why it matters: This matters for the Energy theme because the record diesel prices stem from war-related supply disruptions and limited refining capacity.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime
Intermodal's analyst Nikos Tagoulis said the East–West pipeline, with a capacity of around 7mn bpd, had become Saudi Arabia's main alternative route to bypass Hormuz, with flows rising to more than 4mn bpd. Its shutdown materially reduces rerouting flexibility, and a prolonged outage would deepen an already substantial reduction in supply, adding upward pressure on oil prices. For crude carriers, the disruption constrains vessel supply and raises freight rates, with Middle East-linked earnings at exceptionally high levels.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of energy security, as a prolonged pipeline outage would strain global energy markets and underscore the need for supply diversification.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
The article identifies five maritime chokepoints—the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Suez-Bab Al-Mandab corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Turkish Straits—as critical to global commerce. It notes that a major disruption at any one of them can have ramifications far beyond the region, and that modern threats to shipping include drones and long-range missiles from nonstate actors. The Middle Corridor is presented as an emerging land-based alternative for certain goods.
Why it matters: This analysis underscores how the security of a few maritime chokepoints concentrates risk in global shipping and supply chains.
chokepoint maritime
Sub-Saharan Africa
The 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline was 92.7% built as of August 31 and is expected to be ready to receive crude by mid-December 2026, with commercial production targeted before end-June 2027. EACOP costs are now estimated at about $5.6bn, roughly 55% more than the $3.6bn projected before the final investment decision. Uganda discovered commercial reserves in 2006 and estimates about 6.5bn barrels of petroleum in place, of which roughly 1.65bn barrels are recoverable.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of regional integration, because the pipeline links Uganda's landlocked oil fields to Tanzania's coast, but the promised regional payoff is still uncertain.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure
The UN is ready to investigate the Sudanese Armed Forces' chemical weapons programme if a mandate is approved. The UN supports a US proposal to expand the arms embargo to all of Sudan. A UN spokesman said Sudan does not need more weapons and called for de-escalation.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of chemical weapons, as it signals potential UN action on alleged chemical weapons use in Sudan.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Koryx Copper agreed to raise its ownership in two Zambian Copperbelt exploration licences from 51% to 80% through an amended agreement with World Class Mineral Ventures. It will pay $200,000 in cash and issue 80,000 common shares valued at C$3.50 each. Fieldwork has begun; a 2,500m diamond drilling programme at Luanshya West is scheduled to start during the week of 21 September, and Mpongwe will see around 3,000 soil samples collected by year-end.
Why it matters: The deal underscores the strategic importance of Zambian copper assets in the global critical minerals supply chain.
critical minerals
In mid-September, Dangote's refinery made the largest stock market entry on the continent, presented by Aliko Dangote as an IPO for the people. Nigerians turned the event into a social media trend called 'Yangote', with humorous videos. The offering attracted retail investors from a few dollars, temporarily overwhelmed the Bamboo trading platform, and by the close on Friday 18 September nearly 2.5 million shares had been bought, more than half of those offered.
Why it matters: This illustrates the growing participation of retail investors in African capital markets.
green tech supply chain
The World Bank and IMF executive boards approved reforms to the joint debt sustainability framework for low-income countries, the first review since 2017. The changes broaden analysis to domestic debt and long-term challenges such as climate change, leave the discount rate at 5%, and will become operational in the second half of 2027.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing's debt sustainability theme by showing how the main multilateral lenders are adjusting the tools used to assess low-income countries' borrowing capacity.
supply chain risk
Ninety environmental NGOs in Madagascar sent a letter to the head of state in early September, made public at the end of last week, calling for stronger action against forest fires and for firmer justice against trafficking in wood, minerals and tortoises. The letter cites an August incident in the Makira protected area, where people who plundered resources were released by a court and later returned to burn offices and a village. The signatories warn that without action Madagascar will lose 93% of its 1950 forest cover within 25 years.
Why it matters: This illustrates the briefing's theme of environmental governance, showing how impunity and weak enforcement allow forest fires and natural-resource trafficking to persist in Madagascar.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Americas
The Trump administration entered an October 2025 summit with Xi Jinping believing it held leverage, but China has escalation dominance over the United States. Washington has already conceded on tariffs, technology controls, and visa policies to ease Chinese restrictions on rare-earth elements. The article argues the United States should build short-term inventories of strategic goods sourced from China and seek increased imports and Chinese foreign direct investment.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of decoupling: the United States cannot quickly decouple from Chinese supply chains and must manage strategic dependencies through bargaining rather than confrontation.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Trump and Xi will meet on September 24 amid a trade truce, with an apparent understanding that new US tariffs will not exceed an effective rate of 30 percent. US and Chinese officials discussed AI over the weekend, agreeing to continue dialogue, and the US proposed an AI safety notification mechanism for the summit. The article also states that Washington still lacks a coherent strategy for competing with Beijing.
Why it matters: This matters for geoeconomics because the summit's outcomes will shape US-China economic competition and the governance of critical technologies like AI.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The two sides have found new sources of leverage across AI, chips, rare earths and wider technology supply chains since the US leader’s May visit to Beijing. Huawei remains a central battleground; as Washington tightens restrictions, the company has set an internal goal of “becoming Nvidia”. Days before Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington for talks with Donald Trump, Huawei announced a system it said could enable up to 1 million processors to operate as one computer.
Why it matters: This matters because the evolution of leverage in technology supply chains shapes the broader US-China strategic rivalry.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with counterparts from Arctic countries in New York, stressing the need for continued investment in Arctic security. The meeting preceded the signing of a security agreement on Greenland between the US, Denmark, and Greenland, which recognizes Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. Discussions also covered cooperation on icebreakers between the US, Canada, and Finland.
Why it matters: This matters for Arctic security, as the agreement seeks to prevent China and Russia from establishing bases or making sensitive investments in Greenland without consent.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
The United States, Denmark and Greenland are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday resolving the dispute over Greenland, according to a US official. The agreement includes reopening a former Cold War military base in southern Greenland and a military presence at a base on the east coast used by Danish dog-sled patrols. The text has not been published, and Denmark says it places Arctic security under NATO.
Why it matters: This matters for Arctic security, as the agreement shifts oversight of the region to NATO.
geostrategy military basing
A Venezuelan delegation led by interim President Delcy Rodriguez arrived in New York on Monday and began discussing energy, debt and mining issues with counterparties in the US. The talks are expected to lead to the signing of agreements as part of President Trump's plans to rebuild Venezuela's key industries.
Why it matters: The talks advance Venezuela's debt restructuring and energy negotiations with US and international financial institutions.
critical minerals · supply chain risk