Energy security runs through the day's items, and the pressure points are chokepoints rather than volumes. In Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East, Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, the halt in its crude loadings and the restoration of Saudi pipeline flows to 5.8 million b/d show supply being rerouted around the strait. In Asia-Pacific, Russian crude flows shift toward China while Iranian barrels off Malaysia are drawn from floating storage, and Singapore bunker prices remain far above pre-war levels. In the Americas, diesel prices and refining margins show the same strain. Sub-Saharan Africa's port congestion and cotton delays show trade routes absorbing the same disruption.
Value chains & chokepoints
Russia exported 4.088 million barrels/day of seaborne crude in September, up 8% month over month and up 3% year over year, according to S&P Global Energy ship tracking data. Exports to India fell 59% month over month to 816,000 b/d while exports to China rose 22% month over month to 1.415 million b/d, and shipments to unknown destinations rose to 709,000 b/d from 24,000 b/d in August. US President Donald Trump signed legislation on Sept. 18 allowing tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas by volume.
Why it matters: The shift in Russian crude flows away from India and toward China and unidentified destinations indicates that sanctions are redirecting trade routes rather than reducing export volumes.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The US Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.21 million barrels per day from a previous estimate of 2.39 million, implying total 2027 demand of 104.64 million b/d against 102.43 million this year. It also projected a contraction in global oil demand in 2026, citing the effects of the Iranian war, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and higher prices. The agency cut its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth in 2027 to 3.21 million b/d from 3.46 million.
Why it matters: The revisions link oil demand and non-OPEC supply projections directly to Middle East conflict, placing energy markets at the centre of the briefing's coverage.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
A survey by the specialised Energy platform, based in Washington, lists oil and gas assets for sale in Egypt, the United Kingdom, the United States, Trinidad and Tobago, Angola, Colombia and Ecuador, with sales at stages ranging from ongoing negotiations to final agreements awaiting closing conditions. The largest disclosed deal by value is Gran Tierra Energy's sale of all its operations in Colombia and Ecuador to France's Maurel & Prom for about $1.33 billion, alongside assets of BP, Chevron, Woodside and California Resources. BP's Egyptian assets are close to sale, with an Emirati company in advanced talks to acquire the entire offered portfolio, while BP's UK North Sea assets have also been put up for sale in a deal that may exceed $2 billion.
Why it matters: The wave of oil and gas divestments shows how major companies are reordering their portfolios and reducing debt, a shift that bears on energy security and the geography of upstream ownership.
supply chain risk
A report by the environmental consultancy Koinon, sponsored by five NGOs and foundations opposed to rapid commercialization of deep-sea mining, stress-tested the business model of two projects belonging to The Metals Company. Running 10,000 simulations, Koinon found the median outcome would result in no meaningful return, with negative net cash flow in every year in 60% of iterations and a median internal rate of return of 4% among runs generating a positive return. The report concludes an 83 percent probability of returning a loss and a median net present value of -$5 billion at an 8 percent discount rate, against TMC's own projected $23 billion.
Why it matters: The study bears on critical minerals supply, because the simulated economics of seabed manganese nodules and the projected offset to terrestrial nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese tax revenue inform the debate over alternative sources of industrial metals.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Tracking data from United Against Nuclear Iran indicate that an estimated 9 million barrels of Iranian crude were transferred in ship-to-ship operations off Malaysia during September, drawing down inventories accumulated before the US maritime blockade took effect. UANI estimates that no more than roughly 10 million barrels of Iranian crude now remain in floating storage around Malaysia's Eastern Outside Port Limits, and says no new Iranian crude has crossed the blockade line since July 14. Its monthly data show Iranian exports falling from 966,133 barrels per day in July to 49,677 bpd in August and 50,789 bpd in September, with China receiving no newly exported Iranian barrels under UANI's methodology.
Why it matters: The drawdown bears directly on the briefing's energy security theme, because continued deliveries to Chinese independent refiners would depend on depleting a finite stockpile rather than replacing exported barrels.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime
United Against Nuclear Iran said in a shipping update on Oct. 5 that at least 50 tankers carrying Iranian oil remain backed up near Iran's coast, broadly unchanged from two months ago, mostly carrying crude, petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. The group said 20 Iran-flagged vessels are off Sri Lanka and one is off Oman, while empty vessels are loitering at anchorages across the Indo-Pacific rather than returning to Iranian ports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran would have no oil on the water this week, and preliminary vessel-tracking estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September.
Why it matters: The reported halt in Iranian crude loadings and the backlog of laden tankers bear directly on the briefing's theme of energy security.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Bunker prices in Singapore have risen by roughly three-quarters since the US-Iran war began on February 28, with VLSFO climbing to $886 per tonne and HSFO to $764 by Monday this week, increases of 74% and 77% from February 27. Singapore VLSFO peaked at $1,120.50 per tonne by March 13 and has not returned close to pre-war levels. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has squeezed supply into Asia and the Middle East, with Singapore VLSFO lead times stretching into double digits and Fujairah at times effectively dry for prompt VLSFO.
Why it matters: The persistence of elevated bunker prices and hub shortages indicates that the Iran war's disruption is now embedded in energy security and shipping costs rather than being a passing price shock.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The article considers a scenario in which Chinese coast guard vessels stop commercial ships approaching Taiwan, Taipei calls it a blockade, and European governments are less certain how to respond. It notes that the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy and sanctions decisions generally require unanimity, and that Beijing could exploit European divisions through selective threats, critical-materials leverage, or economic incentives. It also states that European governments are reassessing their dependence on the United States as they take on more of the burden for Ukraine and face uncertainty over the transatlantic relationship.
Why it matters: The article shows that sanctions coordination is a central geoeconomics theme: Europe's unanimity rules and Beijing's selective economic leverage could prevent Washington from converting allied economic power into a coherent instrument during a Taiwan crisis.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The revised National Defense Mobilization Law came into effect on October 1, the first major overhaul of the statute since it was created in 2010. The revision widens the circumstances under which mobilization can be declared, obliges private organizations to assist in mobilization, and allows the state to levy or expropriate anything required for mobilization. It defines defense mobilization as steps taken by the state in response to threats to national sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, security and "development interests".
Why it matters: The revision extends military-civil fusion by giving the state explicit authority to collect and use defense-related data and to treat a broad share of the civilian economy as a contingency-based defense asset, with implications for foreign firms and for economic disputes beyond Taiwan.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iran's military said on Monday that it retained full control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait could be fully reopened and shipping restored within seven days if Tehran's conditions were met and hostile measures lifted. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran had not loaded any crude oil onto tankers in September, and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned, a departure officially attributed to family and personal matters. The rial fell to record lows, with the US dollar hitting 270,000 tomans on the informal market, and Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait would not be opened until seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met.
Why it matters: The halt in Iranian crude loadings and the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz put energy security and maritime chokepoint risk at the centre of the briefing.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
During the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, Tehran's threat to oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz cut Saudi oil exports by more than a third and reduced those of the UAE by over 50 percent, while Qatari and UAE LNG exports were entirely cut off. Gulf states are now pursuing at least seven new or expanded pipeline projects to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which Goldman Sachs estimates could add almost 4 million barrels of export capacity per day by the end of 2027. Iran is also adapting, with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen beginning to target Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandab in July 2026.
Why it matters: The pipeline build-out is an energy security response that would reduce the coercive leverage Iran derives from the Strait of Hormuz, yet the region's oil infrastructure remains vulnerable to Iranian sabotage, missile, UAV and cyber attacks.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · geostrategy military basing
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said oil flows through the kingdom's East-West pipeline had been restored to 5.8 million barrels per day by Tuesday morning, after operations were halted by an attack last month. The pipeline has a capacity of up to seven million bpd, and the minister said engineers restored the flow to replenish global supplies disrupted by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking at the Made in GCC Forum in Bahrain, Bahrain's Minister of Industry and Commerce Abdulla bin Fakhro and GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi called for deeper Gulf industrial integration, with Albudaiwi citing more than 22,000 factories employing about 1.7 million workers and 20 joint industrial investment opportunities under development.
Why it matters: The restoration of pipeline flows and the accompanying calls for regional manufacturing integration bear directly on energy security and supply-chain resilience in the Gulf.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime
The Yemeni army announced it had seized new positions in the Haifan district, south of Taiz province, as battles continued on several frontlines there. The Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen said its naval forces carried out an operation in Hodeidah province to protect maritime navigation in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and spokesperson Turki al-Malki said a plot for imminent attacks on southern Red Sea waterways had been thwarted, with weapons depots, warehouses for booby-trapped boats and naval mines destroyed. The Coalition later announced the destruction of a ballistic missile launched in Sanaa and a warehouse in Saada storing 20 missiles, while Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said the Makkah Alliance for Defense committee decided to implement collective defense commitments and deploy agreed forces in the Kingdom.
Why it matters: The reported operations and the alliance's decision bear on maritime security in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and on the collective-defence arrangements of the states involved.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Russia has again ramped up attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid ahead of winter, with 8,000 households temporarily losing power last week. Ukraine’s long-distance drone strikes have hit Russian oil refineries, and Russia’s Defense Ministry said more strikes are coming. Ukraine enters winter with a natural gas surplus, more protective barriers around energy assets, and an expected warm, wet winter due to a strong El Niño, while Germany announced €1 billion in military aid and €350 million for energy repairs.
Why it matters: The convergence of wartime energy infrastructure attacks and a favorable El Niño weather pattern makes energy security a central variable in Ukraine’s winter resilience.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
A large fire broke out on an oil tanker off the Russian coast in the Black Sea on Tuesday evening after an attack that Moscow said was carried out by "drone submarines", and its 23 crew members were rescued. Russia's transport ministry said the Liberian-flagged tanker was attacked off Sochi, causing crude oil to burn in the Black Sea, and that the intensity of the flames hindered efforts to control the fire. The ministry said the crew, all Indian nationals, were rescued with no injuries recorded; Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack, while the available text contained no direct Ukrainian comment on the targeting of the tanker.
Why it matters: The strike adds to repeated attacks on shipping and energy-related facilities in the Black Sea since the February 2022 war began, a pattern that falls under the briefing's maritime security and energy infrastructure theme.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
DP World has been granted a 10-year extension to its concession to operate the multipurpose terminal at the Port of Luanda in Angola, and will invest $90 million over the next two years to upgrade infrastructure there. The expansion will raise terminal capacity to more than 1.2 million twenty-foot equivalent units from 500,000 TEU, extend the quay by 222 metres and the operating area by 10 hectares, and add three ship-to-shore cranes and 12 semi-automated gantry cranes. DP World said it has invested more than $260 million in the Luanda terminal since commencing operations in Angola in 2021.
Why it matters: The concession extension and terminal expansion place port infrastructure and trade connectivity at the centre of the briefing's infrastructure theme, with DP World describing Luanda as a potential gateway for West and Central Africa.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Ghanaian aviation investigators are looking into whether a technical malfunction onboard the Chinese-made Z-9 helicopter led to last Wednesday's crash in the central Ashanti region that killed eight people. Recent gains by Ethiopian government troops in pushing back Tigrayan opposition forces may have been helped by the use of sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles from Turkey, Iran and China. A military blogger, Defense News Nigeria, explained why Abuja felt it necessary to negotiate a series of covert military procurement deals with Beijing.
Why it matters: Chinese arms exports run through three separate African security episodes reported here, from a fatal helicopter crash in Ghana to battlefield UAV use in Ethiopia and covert procurement by Nigeria.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Strong volume growth along the West African coast has brought heavy and intensifying congestion to many ports in the region. Ghana, Guinea and Sierra Leone are among the countries most affected by delays, and all three are rapidly approaching the volumes they handled in the entirety of 2025. Forwarders active on West African routes are cited in the report.
Why it matters: The delays illustrate the trade theme: rising volumes along the West African coast are outpacing the capacity of the ports handling them.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
The Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) said on October 5 that it has begun consultations with commercial banks on a Spot FX Sales and Intermediation Framework giving authorised lenders regular access to dollars generated from the country's gold trade through its GoldBod GoFX platform, still under Bank of Ghana regulatory oversight. GoldBod has described the arrangement as the central bank's exit from FX intermediation, a role it says it now assumes in full. Under the framework, GoldBod will ordinarily conduct spot dollar sales twice weekly, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, with same-day settlement and with banks required to certify that requests reflect genuine unmet customer demand or an existing foreign-currency short position.
Why it matters: The framework relocates intermediation of gold-linked foreign-exchange inflows from Ghana's central bank to a state trading agency, changing the institutional arrangement through which monetary policy and reserve management are conducted.
supply chain risk
The Association française cotonnière (Afcot) held its meetings on 5 and 6 October in Lille, with wide participation by African representatives of the sector, who discussed market prospects for the continent's cotton. The new harvest is beginning while cotton from the previous harvest remains in African exporting countries: Mali faces fuel supply difficulties and struggles to move its cotton by truck to an export port, and in Côte d'Ivoire hundreds of containers are accumulating at the port of Abidjan, where cotton is sometimes blocked for two or three months, with some traders reporting contract cancellations by Indian buyers. Participants also noted that Brazil has increased its presence in Bangladesh, while the franc zone's cotton market share fell from 40% to 28%.
Why it matters: The port congestion and Brazil's market gains bear on the briefing's trade and supply-chain theme, since African exporters' capacity to regain lost market share depends on transport times returning to normal.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure
The World Bank published its assessment of the continent's economy on 6 October 2026, on the eve of the World Bank and IMF annual meetings held in Bangkok. Regional growth was revised upward and should reach 4.3% in 2026 despite shocks including the Ebola epidemic, the war in Sudan, reduced aid and a fuel crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Three out of four countries saw growth accelerate faster than expected, and state debt stabilised at around 57% of GDP, while debt service rose.
Why it matters: The revision bears on the briefing's macroeconomic stability theme, since rising debt-service costs limit the resources governments can direct to education, health, water and energy while shocks accumulate.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Americas
The column asks whether the United States should export AI technology and under what conditions, framing the choice between stringently protecting hardware and software and a "flood the zone" approach that seeks to make U.S. models and the chips supporting them the global standard. The author writes that both strategies have been employed and both have had successes and failures, citing jet engine hot section technology as a case of long-term success for tight controls and Microsoft Windows as a classic example of the diffusion strategy. He concludes that with China already in a contest for leadership neither strategy is likely to be fully effective, that the United States should maintain controls, and that its best move is to run faster to stay ahead.
Why it matters: The argument bears directly on export controls and US-China technology competition, because the choice between restricting and diffusing AI exports determines how far policy can slow China's own development.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
The Energy Information Administration reported on September 15 that the average retail diesel price was up more than 77 percent from a year earlier, attributing much of the increase beyond crude oil to unusually high refining margins amid tight global distillate supplies. The text cites simultaneous shocks: Persian Gulf oil exports ran at about half their pre-war level in August and diesel exports at roughly a quarter, or 390,000 barrels per day, while Ukrainian strikes cut Russian refining and China curtailed its own fuel exports, leaving global refinery output in August 4.2 million barrels per day below August 2025. U.S. refineries ran at 97 percent of capacity in the week ending September 11, with distillate fuel inventories 13 percent below the five-year average, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at about 285 million barrels, the lowest since November 1982.
Why it matters: The commentary frames the diesel price shock as a test of energy security, arguing that refining capacity and strategic reserves, not only crude supply, determine a country's cushion against supply interruptions.
supply chain risk
US Department of Defense sourcing restrictions that from January 2027 will prohibit procurement of samarium-cobalt and NdFeB magnets containing materials mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in China are driving increased demand and higher prices for dysprosium and terbium outside China. Fastmarkets assessments showed terbium oxide 99.99% cip global rose 41% to $5,000-8,000 per kg on Thursday from $4,200-5,000 per kg on September 24, while dysprosium oxide 99.5% cip global rose to $2,500-3,500 per kg from $1,910-2,500 per kg a week earlier, and ferro-dysprosium 80% cip global increased to $2,750-3,850 per kg from $1,375-2,100 per kg. Lynas announced on September 30 it will acquire Meteroric Resources for A$968 million, giving it access to the Caldeira project, which the company said could eventually produce 127 tonnes per year of the two heavy rare earths.
Why it matters: The developments illustrate the critical minerals theme: defence sourcing restrictions and export controls are accelerating efforts to build non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply chains.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Beijing has gradually been cutting its holdings of US Treasuries while pushing to expand the yuan’s global use and developing alternative financial architecture. The issue did not feature in the official communique of last month’s Xi-Trump summit in Washington, where tariffs, agricultural quotas and critical minerals were discussed. Charles Chang, a finance professor at Fudan University, said China’s holdings of US debt were likely raised during the talks but were unlikely to result in a formal agreement similar to those covering trade.
Why it matters: It bears on the geoeconomics theme, because a gradual reduction of dollar exposure alongside expanded yuan use touches on reserve-currency arrangements and sovereign debt management that Washington is likely to scrutinise.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
China is expanding its efforts to drill ultra-deep oil and gas wells, defined as more than three-and-a-half miles deep, as the world's largest crude importer steps up domestic exploration. China broke oil and gas production records in 2025 and has hastened its efforts this year to shield itself from war-related shifts in global energy markets, according to The South China Morning Post. A Semafor China columnist argued that China's oil stockpiles, overland pipelines, coal-to-chemicals technologies and green technologies have given Beijing strategic leverage over island neighbours dependent on imported energy.
Why it matters: The expansion of ultra-deep drilling is a domestic-supply component of China's energy security approach, aimed at limiting exposure to war-related disruption in global energy markets.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his biggest problem in dealing with Iran is that no one knows who is running the country, adding that the second group of Iranian leaders has departed. He said Iran is in a very bad situation and that its economy is collapsing after inflation exceeded three hundred percent, and said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, expecting oil prices to fall once the war with Iran ends. He commented on the resignation of Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad, and the remarks came a day after he said he was open to direct negotiations with Tehran, while the US Treasury warned foreign financial institutions on Monday that they could face sanctions without prior notice if they deal with Iran or its financial sector.
Why it matters: The statements bear on the briefing's energy markets theme, since they tie the US–Iran confrontation to Strait of Hormuz oil flows, crude prices and shipping in the region.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry