Chokepoints and sanctions enforcement pull in opposite directions today. Iran's campaign in the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal transit caps squeeze energy flows, while Europe's sanctions list, France's boarding of the DF Peak and drone strikes on Russian ships in the Mediterranean show enforcement widening. Asia-Pacific states absorb the freight and refining consequences, with Indian distillates moving to Europe and South Korea's Texas LNG project under dispute. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania's gas talks and Botswana's De Beers stake show resource states bargaining for position, while the Americas host lithium offtakes and a fight over Russian diesel.
Value chains & chokepoints
A US Commerce Department directive required Anthropic to cut foreign nationals' access to its Fable and Mythos models, prompting European fears of a US "kill switch" over AI services. The article argues the shutoff was a response to an alleged jailbreak using export controls, and that the EU joined the Pax Silica initiative in late June after France lifted its objections, having received informal guarantees that membership would not require mirroring US chip export controls. It adds that the EU received no guarantees, even informal, of future access to advanced US chips or AI models, and that digital policy official Roberto Viola returned from Washington without such assurances.
Why it matters: The episode shows how export controls and tech sovereignty concerns shape alliance cohesion in the US-China technology competition.
sanctions export controls · critical minerals · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
The Federal Maritime Commission initiated a broad-based fact-finding proceeding on transit constraints at international maritime chokepoints, and since the February 2026 commencement of military operations in Iran attention has focused on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Drought conditions associated with a Super El Nino have left water levels in Gatun Lake trending well below historic levels, leading the Panama Canal Authority to impose draft and daily transit restrictions, including a cap of 34 transits from September 4 and 32 from September 15. The restrictions led to auctions for transit slots, with a record bid of $5.3 million for a liquefied natural gas tanker on September 1.
Why it matters: It bears on the maritime chokepoints theme, because contractual allocation of delay risk at constrained passages affects charterparty laycan, redelivery and termination terms.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
An oversupply of heavy crude is building in North and South America while Brent trades above $100 a barrel, as tanker freight rates have surged in the wake of the United States-Iran war. Last week the cost to ship crude from the Americas to Asia on a very large crude carrier topped $80 million, about $40 a barrel, and the Gulf Coast to Europe route was estimated at about $46 million. United States refinery utilization this year has averaged its highest level in 28 years, limiting how much additional heavy crude the country can process.
Why it matters: It shows that in energy trade, freight and refining constraints rather than crude availability can determine where barrels move and at what price.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The CSIS Americas Program designed a series of tabletop exercises to examine the consequences of China-Russia cooperation across sectors, with the latest exercise addressing the economic and trade space. Results indicate that when China and Russia cooperate they tend to pursue more coercive trade and economic measures, though such coercion tends to backfire in the region. China has far greater economic clout in Latin America and the Caribbean, while Russia has leveraged its more limited presence to wield substantial influence.
Why it matters: The findings bear on the briefing's theme of economic coercion, indicating that coordinated Chinese and Russian pressure in Latin America and the Caribbean can backfire and thereby shape how the United States designs its own trade and investment approach.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Finance Minister Khamis Mussa Omar said on October 13 that Tanzania is nearing an agreement on its long-delayed $42bn liquefied natural gas project, although definitive accords remain unsigned. The project, led by Equinor and Shell, would commercialise offshore discoveries estimated to hold 47.13 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Tanzania signed a preliminary Host Government Agreement framework with Shell and Equinor in June 2022 but missed a target to conclude definitive agreements before June 2026, and the outstanding arrangements require government approval before the partners can make a final investment decision.
Why it matters: The case shows how unresolved host-government negotiations and pending legislation can delay energy security gains and investment in large gas export projects.
green tech supply chain
Asia-Pacific
South Korea selected an LNG power plant in Texas as the initial project under its investment agreement with the United States, focusing on commercial viability. The Trump administration has since announced additional energy projects, including eight nuclear power plants and an LNG pipeline in Alaska, and an $8.4 billion oil recovery project that Seoul contends was not under consideration. The text argues Seoul and Washington should consider using some funds for projects that improve national security and supply chain security, and it discusses risks in the Texas project and in powering AI data centers.
Why it matters: The dispute over additional energy commitments matters for supply chain security because the text links China's control of critical minerals and willingness to exploit vulnerabilities to economic coercion.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
ASPI has expanded its Critical Technology Tracker to include a patent-analysis capability, introducing patent-based rankings across more than 20 of the 74 critical technologies it tracks. The new capability adds patent filings, grants and quality-patent data across those technologies, with two decades of historical data, alongside head-to-head country comparisons and new quality-patent metrics. The tracker's publication-based rankings draw on Web of Science, ORCID and the Research Organization Registry, and its most recent update in June 2026 showed China leading in 69 of 74 tracked technologies.
Why it matters: The addition of patent data to a research-citation tracker bears on the briefing's theme of technological competition, because it extends the measurement of national capability from research output to the filing and protection of intellectual property.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
The article argues that the Philippines should go beyond a transparency-only approach in the West Philippine Sea, citing the Marcos Jr. administration’s Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept, which emphasises basing dispersion, ranged strike capabilities and the use of geography. It calls on Manila to deepen foreign military partnerships, coordinate messaging and actions around shared values, the national interest and its red lines, and work with partners and allies on digital regulations and tech accountability. It also urges the Philippines to use its 2026 chairmanship of ASEAN to lead discussions on the region’s normative gains, noting that ASEAN’s founding norms of consensus and non-interference reflected the realities of 1967.
Why it matters: It bears on Indo-Pacific security, where Manila’s attempt to convert transparency, military partnerships and ASEAN norms into deterrence shapes the region’s strategic balance.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
China announced the opening of a Joint Logistics and Training Center to train air force pilots in Ban Keun, Laos. Vietnam has not commented on the new base at Ban Keun, but Prime Minister Le Minh Hung just concluded a visit to Laos and Cambodia, with Laos as his first official visit since assuming the prime ministerial post in April. The article argues that Vietnam will stick to its non-aligned foreign policy to maintain its goal of keeping Laos and Cambodia neutral.
Why it matters: The development matters for the theme of security because China's joint training centers in Laos and Cambodia test the post-1991 status quo and Vietnam's non-aligned foreign policy.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
India's middle distillate exports rose to a one-year high in September, reaching nearly 740,000 barrels/day, about 57% of the country's total oil product exports, with gasoil outflows at 586,000 b/d. Shipments to Europe and the Mediterranean region reached a year-to-date high of 298,000 b/d, including 216,000 b/d destined for the Mediterranean. India cut the special additional excise duty on diesel exports to 16 rupees/liter from 20 rupees/liter and on jet fuel exports to 10.5 rupees/liter from 15 rupees/liter, with the new rates applying for two weeks from Oct. 1.
Why it matters: The export volumes and duty changes bear on energy security, as tightening European diesel inventories and disruptions to Middle Eastern refined product supply draw Indian cargoes toward Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa and Latin America.
supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Emir Sheikh Tamim told a Shura Council meeting that Qatar's total revenues fell 42 per cent in the first half of the year while public expenditure decreased by 14 per cent, after LNG exports dropped because of the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. About 17 per cent of Qatar's LNG capacity is offline after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 export trains, removing 12.8 million tonnes a year, and QatarEnergy has said repairs will take three to five years. The World Bank projects Gulf economies to contract by an average of 4.3 per cent in 2026, with Qatar's economy estimated to contract 20.9 per cent, while the IMF expects a 15.6 per cent contraction this year before growth of 18.8 per cent in 2027.
Why it matters: The item concerns energy security: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to the Ras Laffan complex have removed Qatari LNG supply from world markets, raising gas prices and cutting the government revenue of a major exporter.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. The Kremlin has yet to confirm any energy ceasefire and has rejected a separate Ukrainian proposal for a sixty-day ceasefire. Tensions also flared over a deal that Trump announced on Friday to purchase Russian diesel, which would involve temporary sanctions relief for Moscow.
Why it matters: The discord over energy infrastructure and the proposed diesel deal shows how energy and sanctions policy are shaping Ukraine peace talks.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy
Three Russian ships have been hit and disabled by drones in the Mediterranean in the past 12 months, with reported Ukrainian attacks appearing to be part of Kyiv’s campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers and merchantmen breaking international sanctions. The Ukrainian government has not publicly acknowledged attacking Russian ships or having units in the region, apart from a sea drone that ran ashore at Lefkada, but the Associated Press and Radio France International reported, citing anonymous sources, that Ukraine has a 200-strong drone unit operating in Tripoli, Zawiya and Misratah. Russia’s Libyan deployment stretches back 10 years, and Russian forces are deployed in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Mali, and Niger, where they support governments in return for mining contracts.
Why it matters: The article shows that sanctions enforcement against Russia’s shadow fleet is entangled with military competition in Libya and Africa, a geoeconomic and security dynamic.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
The European Union has released a 930-page sanctions list covering nearly 1,600 businesses and individuals across the defense industrial base, including dozens of shipyards, ship repair plants, design bureaus and equipment suppliers. The designations include 23 shipyards and ship repair plants, among them Admiralty Shipyard, Sevmash and Almaz Shipbuilding Company, as well as the Rubin, Malakhit and Lazurit submarine engineering departments. In all, about 50 individual executives, two dozen service and supply-chain companies and two dozen shipyards were named in Monday's announcement.
Why it matters: The listings extend sanctions across a dual-use maritime sector, adding granular coverage of Russia's defense shipbuilding industrial base to the EU's wider geoeconomic pressure campaign.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
In the past week, President Donald Trump hinted at new attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, said that the United States will buy diesel fuel from Russia while American officials warned Europeans about a possible cutoff of weapons, and announced an energy cease-fire that appeared to catch Kyiv by surprise. He also mused publicly about resuming hostilities against the Houthis and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to step aside. The commentary states that Trump has seen Iran as a threat since the 1980s and believes that an Iranian nuclear weapon or Iranian domination of the Persian Gulf's energy resources would threaten American interests.
Why it matters: The commentary reads the week's announcements as an expression of the president's convictions about Iran, Russia, energy and Europe, which bears on Foreign Policy analysis of coercion and alliance management.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The French navy boarded the tanker DF Peak in the Indian Ocean, around 450 nautical miles south of Réunion Island, to verify its nationality after doubts arose over its claimed Benin registration. President Emmanuel Macron said the vessel was suspected of sailing under a false flag and of involvement in illicit fuel transportation; it is under U.S., EU, U.K. and Ukrainian sanctions and was being escorted to Réunion for further checks. Russia's embassy in France called the seizure a blatant violation of international law and said France had not notified Russia about it.
Why it matters: The boarding is an act of sanctions enforcement against Russia's shadow fleet, the theme under which the briefing tracks evasion of oil-related restrictions.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
Sub-Saharan Africa
Former DRC president Joseph Kabila and the armed group M23 announced a new party, the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), at a joint press conference at Kabila's residence in Goma. The group was presented as a "politico-military" outfit to be headed by Kabila, with rebel leaders serving as deputies. Kabila was condemned to death in absentia a year ago for "complicity" with the M23, an allegation he has denied, and the announcement comes as the presidential majority has been preparing public opinion on amending the constitution's two-term limit.
Why it matters: The merger of a former head of state with an armed group directly affects conflict and security in eastern DRC, where a Qatari-mediated ceasefire is not being respected and a Kinshasa-Kigali deal signed in December has had no tangible effect on the ground.
critical minerals · geostrategy military basing
Botswana and a consortium seeking to acquire De Beers are close to agreeing an ownership structure that would raise the government's stake in the diamond producer from 15% to approximately 25%, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the talks. Anglo American owns 85% of De Beers and Botswana the remaining 15%; under the proposed sale part of Anglo's holding would pass to Botswana, with Angola, Namibia and private consortium investors acquiring other interests, and the three governments collectively holding less than 50%. Moody's Ratings downgraded Botswana to Baa2 from Baa1 on September 25 and said it could lower the rating again if the government materially increased its investment in De Beers through debt-financed transactions.
Why it matters: The negotiations bear on the briefing's commodities theme, because the distribution of De Beers' diamond output and the fiscal capacity of the states hosting it are being settled in the same transaction.
critical minerals
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has put US-sanctioned businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei in charge of economic development and investment promotion. Tagwirei's Sakunda Holdings dominates fuel, mining and agriculture, and the appointment raises questions about conflicts of interest in sectors where his companies compete. The text describes him as a sanctioned minister trying to draw investors to Harare.
Why it matters: The appointment places a US-sanctioned businessman at the head of investment promotion, linking the briefing's sanctions theme to Zimbabwe's attempts to attract foreign capital.
sanctions export controls · critical minerals
Ethiopian government forces are continuing to advance toward the border town of Zalambessa, previously held by Tigray rebels, according to Reuters citing informed sources. Eritrean forces entered Zalambessa last week to support the rebels, though it is not established whether they or rebel elements remain there. Eritrea denied any incursion by its forces into Ethiopian territory and called on the United Nations to take deterrent measures against Addis Ababa, calling Ethiopian accusations of invasion a "declaration of war".
Why it matters: The advance bears on the armed-conflict theme, as renewed hostility between Addis Ababa and Asmara and fighting in Tigray raise the prospect of a wider war in the Horn of Africa.
geostrategy military basing
The 36th African Hydro Symposium (AHS2026) will be held in Addis Ababa from 3–6 November 2026. The event is expected to produce the launch of the African Energy Security Policy Framework, led by the AUC, ECA, AUDA-NEPAD and AFREC, and the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the African Union, acting through AFREC, and KGRTC. The symposium, established in 1989 and described as Africa's longest-running professional hydropower platform, will focus on six key areas under the theme "Climate-Resilient Hydropower and Water–Energy Security in Africa."
Why it matters: The planned launch of the African Energy Security Policy Framework and the AU–KGRTC MOU place energy security and capacity development at the centre of the briefing's themes.
water · supply chain risk
Eritrea maintains an unusually large military relative to its population. This is sustained by decades of compulsory conscription and national service.
Why it matters: It bears on the conflict theme, since the scale and staffing model of Eritrea's armed forces condition any escalation with Ethiopia.
geostrategy military basing
Americas
Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections, according to two senior Iranian officials. The officials said Iran changed the type and pace of attacks about 10 days ago, and a US military official confirmed the IRGC has used unarmed spotters in small boats after the US destroyed much of Iran’s radar capabilities. Attacks on commercial ships in the strait have surged to their highest level since the war began, with at least five incidents in the past 48 hours, and Iranian officials said Tehran plans to expand operations beyond Hormuz and move toward complete closure.
Why it matters: The shift affects global energy markets and shipping through a chokepoint that carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bing News: "Strait of Hormuz"
A bipartisan group of 12 US senators, including former Republican senate leader Mitch McConnell, signed a letter asking President Donald Trump to rescind his deal allowing Russian diesel exports. The senators said the deal damages American security interests, will have a negligible impact on fuel prices, and that the revenue the Kremlin receives will finance its war of attrition and advance its security co-operation with China, Iran and North Korea, endangering service members operating overseas. Trump said last week that Vladimir Putin had agreed in a call to supply millions of barrels of diesel to global markets, and the US Treasury Department has issued a special exemption as part of the deal, whose legality some elected officials have questioned.
Why it matters: The dispute places Russian energy exports at the centre of the briefing's energy security theme, linking export revenue to the war in Ukraine and to US domestic fuel prices before the November 3 midterm elections.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy
Trafigura has entered a ten-year binding agreement worth more than $2bn with EnergyX to purchase 100,000t of battery-grade lithium products from projects in the US and Chile. Under the take-or-pay contract, Trafigura will buy lithium hydroxide from Project Lonestar in Texas and lithium carbonate from Project Black Giant in Antofagasta, Chile, taking 66% of phase one output from Black Giant and 30% from Lonestar. EnergyX describes the deal as its first public commercial lithium offtake agreement, with commercial-scale production targeted for 2028 in Chile and 2029 in Texas.
Why it matters: The agreement bears on the critical minerals theme, as the offtake is presented as a step in bringing strategic critical minerals projects online and building secure, diversified supply chains.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
JPMorganChase has appointed Andrew Frame to lead its critical minerals investment efforts under the bank's $1.5-trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative. Frame will oversee the bank's critical minerals strategy across extraction, refining and processing, identifying investment opportunities and addressing bottlenecks that threaten access to strategic resources. The 10-year initiative covers four sectors and includes a separate $10-billion allocation earmarked for potential equity and venture capital investments.
Why it matters: The appointment directs a large bank's financing and advisory capacity towards diversifying critical minerals supply chains, the central concern of the briefing's critical minerals theme.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The text states that US discussion of China's military power focuses on weapons while paying less attention to the industrial capacity behind them, and that China has built a manufacturing base at a scale the United States cannot easily match. It cites the Navy's Arsenal-2 project with Anduril Industries, announced October 6, a planned $6.6 billion manufacturing facility at Tradepoint Atlantic in Maryland, with Anduril investing $3.7 billion and the Navy potentially providing up to $2.9 billion, intended to make components and large assemblies for Virginia-class submarines, initially torpedo tubes. The text notes initial operations are not expected until 2030 and that the manufacturing methods still have to be developed and validated, raising the question of how quickly the United States can create industrial capacity that can be relied upon in a crisis.
Why it matters: The Arsenal-2 case shows that the defense-industrial base is a central element of strategic competition with Beijing, because the United States must build production capacity that can be relied upon in a prolonged Indo-Pacific crisis.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
US President Donald Trump announced that the US would waive sanctions on Russian diesel exports until the spring and permit the release of 300,000 metric tons of diesel into the global market, before announcing an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv. The diesel measure was condemned by a bipartisan group of senators, who argued the volume was too small to make a difference and extended a financial lifeline to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia appears to have violated the ceasefire almost immediately, and a Ukrainian official said Kyiv was temporarily holding off on further long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries while it assessed Moscow's behaviour.
Why it matters: The episode bears on the briefing's energy sanctions theme, because the diesel waiver and the proposed ceasefire together shape both the course of the war and the supply conditions of global fuel markets.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry