Today’s items converge on chokepoint leverage: Europe’s drone build-out depends on critical minerals whose supply is concentrated, Malaysia’s rare-earth output and African export restrictions show attempts to shift processing and capture value, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy security central. They pull in different directions: Washington weighs converting sanctioned tankers to legitimate trade to ease freight costs, even as unverified mine claims and naval incidents sustain risk; Asia-Pacific technology supply chains remain entangled through Nvidia orders while governments tighten export controls. The common thread is that supply-chain, mineral and maritime leverage now shapes security and economic alignment across Europe, Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Value chains & chokepoints
The article argues that policymakers now focus on chokepoints—leverage over supply chains, finance, technology, and security—after a quarter century of globalization made such dependencies pervasive. It says U.S. efforts to exploit its dominant position, along with Chinese and Iranian leverage, have led other states to explore countervailing chokepoint power. The author warns that this dynamic resembles the security dilemma: each state’s attempt to become safer makes others feel less secure and drives escalation.
Why it matters: The article’s core claim belongs to the briefing’s geoeconomics theme: leverage over supply chains, finance, and technology now generates a collective security dilemma.
chokepoint maritime · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Europe’s drone build-out is increasing demand for critical minerals including gallium, germanium, rare-earth elements, cobalt and graphite. Venture capital funding for European defense start-ups is projected to quadruple to €10.5bn, with about three-quarters going to drone development and manufacturing, while cobalt supply is concentrated in extraction in the Democratic Republic of Congo and refining in China. The EU has begun taking measures including the 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act and the 2025 RESourceEU Action Plan, and in early October the Commission announced 46 “Strategic Projects” under the CRMA, 30 of which focus on refining and recycling.
Why it matters: The article shows that critical minerals and concentrated supply chains are central to Europe’s drone industry and its strategic autonomy.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · green tech supply chain
The article states that the US-Israeli war with Iran is changing assumptions about oil security and that oil importers are reassessing old arrangements and considering Western Canadian volumes via the Pacific Link pipeline, especially East Asian democracies. It says Canada is a stable democracy aligned with rule-of-law countries, that Western Canadian export volumes can enter the Pacific without passing through potentially vulnerable maritime choke points, and that shipping times to the region are faster than from other geographies. It recommends that Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea consider investing in coker retrofits at existing refineries to process heavy oil sands crude, and that Taiwan and Japan revise prior energy security assumptions to emphasize oil security over cost given the risk of an energy quarantine or blockade.
Why it matters: The item bears on energy security, as it describes East Asian democracies weighing non-Middle Eastern crude supplies and refinery adaptations to hedge against instability in the Persian Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the Trump administration’s decision to ease the implementation of Russia-related sanctions and said Washington must maintain relations with Pakistan despite New Delhi’s concerns over terrorism. In a Network18 interview, he said sanctions apply to anyone doing business with Russia and that policymakers must weigh consequences for the global economy and partner nations. He accused Iran of targeting commercial shipping using ‘Nazi U-boat tactics,’ said Indian sailors were among those affected, and stated that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely unchanged from pre-conflict levels.
Why it matters: The remarks show how sanctions implementation, Pakistan engagement and Strait of Hormuz shipping security intersect in the briefing’s geoeconomics coverage.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai and pitched for expanded energy trade and greater cooperation in refining Venezuelan crude oil. Rubio also held a trilateral meeting with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah on energy and connectivity, and is scheduled to visit Reliance Industries’ facilities in Jamnagar. He said the two countries are close to finalising a trade agreement and are down to a few technical details.
Why it matters: The visit shows energy trade and refining capacity functioning as instruments of geoeconomic alignment between the US and India.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Malaysia became the first country outside China to produce dysprosium oxide in 2025, and Lynas Rare Earths is spearheading investment in a new facility that will increase capacity from 1,500 metric tons of heavy rare earth feedstock to 5,000 metric tons per year. Malaysia’s rare earth deposits are estimated at 16.1 million metric tons, the third-largest reserves after China and Brazil, and the industry is expected to contribute as much as 9.5 billion MYR to GDP in 2025. The Chinese-Malaysian joint venture MCRE Resources began developing the Gerik ionic clay deposit in Perak in 2022 and exported nearly $11 million worth of rare earth ore to China from January to September 2025.
Why it matters: The case shows how critical minerals supply chains in the Indo-Pacific are being shaped by competing Chinese and Western investment, technology transfer, and offtake agreements.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
China proposes export controls on 12 photovoltaic technologies, according to the supplied text, which truncates the reference at "the Ministry of Com". The same text carries items reporting that a portion of Apple's iPhone 14 manufacturing is relocating from China to India ahead of schedule, and that Apple is in talks to make Apple Watches and MacBooks in Vietnam for the first time.
Why it matters: The proposed export controls and the concurrent relocation of Apple production indicate how export restrictions and supply-chain diversification are reshaping technology manufacturing across Asia.
sanctions export controls · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
China’s Southern Theater Command said it sent forces to track the USS Charleston after the ship “illegally intruded” into waters adjacent to Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands early on Tuesday. It said the U.S. action infringed China’s sovereign rights, jeopardized maritime security and harmed regional peace and stability, and urged the United States to stop such activities. Separately, Taiwan’s Coast Guard reported a standoff with a Chinese Coast Guard ship near the Pratas Islands, with both sides exchanging broadcasts and Taiwan affirming its sovereignty.
Why it matters: The incidents illustrate how maritime security in the South China Sea is contested through naval tracking and coast guard standoffs.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Iran told Pakistan's army chief that it would not hold talks with Washington until Tehran's demands were met, Iranian media reported. President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed mediation efforts and regional developments with Field Marshal Asim Munir in Tehran, and Munir also met parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who said Washington could not regain Tehran's trust until it fulfilled seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said all enriched nuclear materials would remain in Iran.
Why it matters: The demands link sanctions on oil exports and the Strait of Hormuz to negotiations, making the standoff a geoeconomics issue for energy markets.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian told visiting Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir that the US must lift threats and sanctions before any talks, according to Iranian state media. Qatar said communication between Iran and the US had not stopped and that the aim was a solution as soon as possible. Reuters quoted Iranian officials as saying Tehran was deliberately prolonging negotiations with Washington to weaken US President Donald Trump politically before November's midterm elections.
Why it matters: The impasse bears on energy security, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted and Iranian officials linking mediator visits to oil prices.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Oct 20 that naval mines halted three tankers attempting to travel the Strait of Hormuz on routes Tehran considers illegal. The Guards said two oil tankers were set ablaze and halted, and that a third exploded and caught fire after striking a mine south of the strait; that tanker was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil and had deactivated its radar and navigation systems. The text states the conflict began on Feb 28 when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, and that Iran has sought to blockade the waterway while the US imposed a counterblockade on Iranian ports and ships.
Why it matters: The strikes bear on energy security, since the text notes the strait carried around a fifth of the world's oil supplies in peacetime.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed on Tuesday that a supertanker caught fire after striking a naval mine south of the Strait of Hormuz, and separately said two tankers had been set ablaze and disabled by mines. Neither statement identified the vessels or provided independently verifiable evidence, and the Guards did not make clear when the two tankers were allegedly hit. The claims follow similar IRGC announcements in recent months that UKMTO and JMIC assessments have repeatedly questioned, including JMIC’s October 18 advisory stating there was no substantiation for Iranian claims that two supertankers struck mines on October 17.
Why it matters: The episode bears on maritime security, since unverified mine-strike claims and contested transit rules affect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
US energy secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration is authorising the sale of sanctioned oil tankers to approved investors who would refurbish them and return them to legitimate crude trades, amid efforts to contain freight costs during the Hormuz crisis. Wright said the government was developing an approval process for formerly blacklisted vessels to trade under recognised owners carrying only non-sanctioned oil, and said the move was not a blanket lifting of sanctions on Iranian or Russian oil. INTERTANKO warned that legalising a vessel does not automatically address its condition, ownership or insurance, while Kpler estimated only 24 of roughly 160 OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs could realistically return to mainstream trading.
Why it matters: The initiative matters for sanctions policy because it seeks to convert blacklisted tonnage into compliant trade without lifting oil sanctions.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Libya’s House of Representatives ratified on Tuesday 20 October 2026 the maritime border demarcation agreement with Turkey. The decision cancelled a previous parliamentary position from 2020 that had rejected ratification of the memoranda of understanding with Ankara. The agreement dates from 2019, when Libya and Turkey signed it to define maritime jurisdiction areas, amid objections from Greece and Cyprus.
Why it matters: The ratification bears on energy security in the eastern Mediterranean by giving parliamentary backing to a 2019 maritime jurisdiction agreement amid competing oil and gas claims.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Turkey’s parliament received draft legislation on October 20 to ratify a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed in Mecca on August 7. The 16-article Pact of the Mecca Alliance sets out a tripartite collective security framework whose defining clause is modelled on Nato’s Article 5, treating an armed attack or military aggression against one member by a foreign force as an attack on all. The treaty also lays the groundwork for defence industry integration and technological co-development.
Why it matters: The pact’s defence industry integration and intelligence sharing provisions extend a trilateral collective security framework into industrial and operational cooperation among Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Dimitar Bechev of Carnegie Europe wrote that the October 14 drone attack on the Comoros-flagged tanker Yara J near the port of Sulina was the first to land in Romania's territorial waters rather than its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The commentary said seven ships have been hit by aerial and underwater drones this month along the same stretch of EU and Nato coastline, and 27 crew are confirmed dead or missing. It added that Bucharest has reported at least six incursions by Russian drones, and Romanian F-16 fighters shot down two drones over the country's territorial waters on October 17.
Why it matters: The episode illustrates the security theme: hybrid attacks below the Article 5 threshold are testing Nato's collective defence and the EU's ability to deter them.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Dossier Center published an investigation into suspicious passengers carried aboard civilian Russian-flagged cargo ships that transport Russian military exports to Africa. It identified 28 passengers who embarked at Kaliningrad but were not apparently on board when the ship concerned returned to the Baltic, and whose false-name passports were issued by offices previously known to have prepared Russian Military Intelligence documents. All Russian-flagged ships identified as being involved in this military cargo trade are now sanctioned, and most belong to Astrakhan-based MG-Flot.
Why it matters: The reported use of civilian cargo vessels for possible covert personnel movement bears on maritime security and sanctions enforcement.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Zimbabwe banned exports of tungsten and antimony ores and concentrates with immediate effect on September 8, its second such move this year after it suspended exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates in February. Gabon, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Africa have also announced or revived export restrictions on raw or concentrated minerals, and the OECD reports that export restrictions on critical raw materials rose five-fold between 2009 and 2024. The DRC’s cobalt export suspension in February 2025 was followed by a more than fourfold rise in cobalt hydroxide prices in China, before prices later declined.
Why it matters: The measures illustrate the resource curse theme, as African governments use export restrictions to try to retain mineral value and build domestic processing capacity.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls
South Africa’s Steenkampskraal mine is targeting first rare earth concentrate exports before year-end after opening a processing plant, while plans to produce separated oxides locally remain at the development stage. Mintek said the Western Cape deposit grades about 14.5% total rare earth oxides and that the first-stage plant will crush and mill ore, then use gravity separation and flotation to produce monazite concentrate for export. Mintek described the Oct. 6 opening as the start of commercial concentrate production; its release provided no production volumes, named buyers or shipment destinations.
Why it matters: It illustrates a resource-rich state’s attempt to move beyond concentrate exports into domestic processing of critical minerals.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned on 19 October 2026 that the consequences would be "very grave" if Eritrea "serves as a base for our enemies", in an interview in Tigrinya on a public television channel. In the same interview he said that good-neighbourly relations and a partnership were the only way forward, and described Eritrea's economic situation as one of exile and poverty. The two states broke off diplomatic relations in October, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of supporting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of seeking to take the port of Assab; Russia has offered to mediate at a Russia-Africa summit in Moscow on 28 and 29 October.
Why it matters: The exchange places Horn of Africa security at the centre of the briefing, as two neighbouring states with severed diplomatic ties trade accusations of support for armed opponents and territorial designs while a mediation offer remains pending.
chokepoint infrastructure · geostrategy military basing
A few dozen kilometres from Kolwezi in the DRC, rows of dark-blue solar panels are gradually replacing diesel generators at the Kamoa copper mining complex. The solar power plant spans 400 hectares and is designed to supply one of the world’s largest copper mines with cleaner, cheaper electricity.
Why it matters: It bears on the briefing's energy transition theme by showing a copper mine replacing diesel generators with solar power.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Chad's mediator of the Republic, Saleh Kebzabo, called for calm as tension remained high in Tibesti, a week after fighting broke out between the self-defence committee of the Miski gold zone and the National Brigade for the Control of Mining Activities. Each side accuses the other of violating the peace agreements signed the previous year, which were concluded under Kebzabo's auspices on 20 April 2025 and provided for a ceasefire, the integration of fighters into the army and the cancellation of existing mining permits. After the clashes of Wednesday 14 October, in which at least two Chadian officers were killed, the self-defence committee accused the army of killing seven civilians in a drone strike, while the Chadian general staff accused the committee of attacking the mining brigade and urged its members to lay down their arms.
Why it matters: The dispute turns on the distribution of mining revenues, making resource governance the mechanism through which a local self-defence committee and state security forces contest control of the Miski gold zone.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Americas
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington wants to move some vessels from what he called the “bad-guy fleet” to the “good-guy fleet.” The dark fleet refers to ships that sail outside conventional shipping regulations and use deceptive practices to transport sanctioned or high-risk cargo. Wright said the plan would involve investors buying and refurbishing idle sanctioned vessels to carry legitimate oil, and that they would no longer carry sanctioned oil.
Why it matters: The move links sanctions relief to energy costs while leaving maritime security risks in the Strait of Hormuz unaddressed.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within a week if Washington lifts its naval blockade, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and releases frozen assets; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the offer remains open. President Donald Trump refused the offer, and the article says he has reportedly told advisers he expects to resume bombing after the midterms. The author argues that a targeted military campaign would work alongside economic pressure from the blockade and Operation Economic Outcast.
Why it matters: The article presents the blockade and sanctions as economic pressure that a threatened military campaign is intended to reinforce.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
China and the United States have assembled empire-like dominions over the large language models, chips, physical infrastructure, and capital that underpin advanced machine cognition, the article argues. It says their control lets them set the terms of future scientific and intellectual progress and makes countries seeking advanced AI beholden to them. The article compares the AI contest to earlier empires and argues the decisive question may be who can bankroll the race rather than who achieves artificial general intelligence first.
Why it matters: The article presents AI as a US-China technology competition in which control of models, chips, and capital, rather than first arrival at artificial general intelligence, determines geoeconomic leverage.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg that sanctions on shadow fleet tankers will be removed when a sanctioned tanker is sold to a new owner and moved into legitimate trade, an arrangement he described as converting dark tankers to legitimate tankers. The administration says a tanker shortage motivates the move, with about 10 million barrels per day moving through the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East crude exports at about 80 percent of pre-conflict norms. High day rates for large tankers are sustaining benchmark crude prices above $100 per barrel, according to the text.
Why it matters: The arrangement links sanctions relief to secondhand tanker sales, making energy security and oil-price management central to the administration's policy.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, recently reconfigured as the Marine Minerals Administration, announced a mining lease sale for seabed acreage next to Rose Atoll, east of American Samoa, to be held on November 19. The area may contain polymetallic nodules, and the lease sale is being held under a provision of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act outside International Seabed Authority supervision. Earthjustice filed suit to block the auction, arguing that OCSLA does not authorize mineral leasing in a U.S. unincorporated territory like American Samoa.
Why it matters: The lease auction shows critical minerals being framed as a strategic asset in global competition, while environmental and legal challenges test the governance of seabed extraction.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent have together ordered more than $35 billion worth of Nvidia chips, Reuters reported Tuesday. The deals illustrate the continuing entanglement of the US and Chinese tech ecosystems despite intensifying drives in Washington and Beijing to wall off their AI sectors. Beijing recently proposed export controls on AI technologies, while the US has instituted export curbs and banned some Chinese AI from government devices.
Why it matters: The orders show that US-China technology competition persists at the commercial level even as both governments tighten AI export controls.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain