The Strait of Hormuz stays shut after Washington rejected Iran's offer to reopen it, lifting Brent above $106 and holding Gulf exports at 12.8 million bpd against February's 18.8 million, while Europe's LNG imports rise and Asia-Pacific importers absorb the cost. Trade policy moves the same way: the United States caps foreign solar shipments and restricts black mass exports, Kenya nears a minerals-processing deal, and Namibia writes local processing into law. The Trump-Xi truce stabilises China-US trade bilaterally but leaves Europe's rare-earth question and trade-diversion risk unresolved.
Value chains & chokepoints
Chinese companies resold between 17 and 19 million tonnes of LNG in 2025 alone, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, with 8.4 million tonnes of the resold volumes carried on vessels chartered from Chinese firms. Most of the resold cargoes were Australian or American, and most went to South Korea, Japan and the Netherlands. Chinese companies earned $4.6 billion from reselling Australian and American LNG between 2021 and 2025, while China's LNG imports fell from a peak of 79 million tonnes in 2021 to 66 million tonnes in 2025.
Why it matters: The shift turns the world's largest LNG importer into a competing seller, altering global energy trade flows and adding to the oversupply expected as new liquefaction capacity starts up.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The Trump-Xi summit produced a two-month extension of the trade truce until January 2027 and activated the China-US Boards of Trade and Investment, while both sides agreed to support each other's G20 and APEC presidencies. The two leaders also discussed Iran behind closed doors and agreed publicly that Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon. For the European Union, the summit offered no major breakthrough on rare earths and left unresolved the risk of becoming an adjustment variable in China-US competition.
Why it matters: The summit's limited stabilization leaves the European Union exposed to trade diversion and supply-chain dependence as US-China strategic competition is managed bilaterally.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · critical minerals
Kenya's mining minister, Hassan Ali Joho, said talks with US government officials on a deal to develop Kenya's critical minerals processing industry are at a "very advanced" stage, with the US departments of commerce, defense and state involved. The discussions concern refineries and processing plants in Kenya that would partly supply the US, and Joho said they are intertwined with the bidding process for the Mrima Hill deposit, where six companies including American, Australian and Chinese firms are competing. The bidding process is to end in late October, and the minister said mining currently contributes around 1% of Kenya's GDP against a government target of 10% within a decade.
Why it matters: The talks sit within the briefing's critical minerals theme, in which US efforts to secure processing capacity in Africa proceed alongside its rivalry with China over supply chains.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Crude oil prices rose more than 4% on Monday after US president Donald Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US halts military strikes. The November Brent contract traded at $106.50 a barrel, up 2.09% from its previous close after hitting $108.70 during the day, while the Nifty, Nikkei, Kospi and Shanghai Composite all fell. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had offered on Friday to reopen the Strait and restart nuclear negotiations within seven days, and a Wall Street Journal report said Trump told aides he expects US strikes on Iran to resume after November's mid-term elections.
Why it matters: The rejection and the resulting price move bear directly on the briefing's energy security theme, given that India imports 90% of its oil requirements and a sustained $1 per barrel increase raises the annual import bill by around ₹18,000 crore.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: "Strait of Hormuz"
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported that NCM black mass EXW China payables fell 4.9% over Q3 2026, from 77.0% to 73.3%, while LCO black mass EXW China payables for lithium carbonate and cobalt sulphate fell 7.5% and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter to 70.8% for both. Payables declined across other regions, with NCM black mass CIF Asia down 10.4% to 107.5% and EXW North America and EXW Europe down 13.6% and 8.3% respectively. The US government issued a temporary ruling requiring US recyclers to allocate 100% of monthly black mass sales to US buyers unless granted an exception, effective from 27 August for at least one year, and by mid-September all domestic recyclers that had applied for exemptions had received interim 365-day export licences.
Why it matters: The quarter's payables declines and the US export ruling show how export controls and trade interventions are reshaping critical-minerals supply chains and regional feedstock flows.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Gulf oil exports are recovering after months of disruption caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran, with crude exports from the Middle East’s main oil producers expected to reach 12.8 million bpd in September, the highest level since the war began in February, according to Kpler. Regional exports remain around 6 million bpd below the 18.8 million bpd shipped in February before the war began.
Why it matters: The incomplete recovery and stalled US-Iran talks keep energy security and oil-price risk central to the geoeconomic outlook for Asian importers such as India.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with six other authorities including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport, has published a development plan for the battery industry covering 2026 to 2030. The plan places a clear focus on all-solid-state batteries, whose deployment is expected to reach a larger industrial scale for the first time by 2030, alongside sodium-ion and redox flow batteries and the industrialisation of ultra-fast-charging batteries. It also covers industry consolidation through mergers and restructuring, faster development of domestic lithium and cobalt deposits, mandatory take-back systems for manufacturers, and a digital identity management system for batteries used in New Energy Vehicles, while sodium-ion and solid-state batteries remain exempt from consumption tax until the end of 2028.
Why it matters: The plan ties industrial policy to supply-chain security by pairing new cell-chemistry targets with domestic raw-material development, recycling obligations and tax incentives that favour newer technologies over established lithium-ion batteries.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, a 14-point interim understanding Pakistan helped negotiate between Iran and the US in June, returned to high-level discussion at the United Nations General Assembly summit in New York. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the Pakistani leadership remained united in its resolve to expedite the peace efforts outlined in the memorandum, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said it remained totally acceptable to Iran, while Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed support for the US and Iran returning to the June deal. Iranian officials held three hours of talks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on the sidelines of the summit, the first such contact since June, which produced no public breakthrough.
Why it matters: The renewed high-level endorsement of the Islamabad MoU matters for de-escalation because the agreement still serves as the primary reference point for preventing further escalation even though negotiations on the ground have not gathered significant momentum.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Japan has nearly doubled its defense budget, purchased long-range missiles capable of striking military targets in China and North Korea, signed agreements permitting overseas deployments, taken combat roles in multilateral exercises, and lifted its prohibition on exporting weapons. In November 2025, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments about defending Taiwan led Beijing to launch a coercion campaign against Tokyo, including throttling heavy rare-earth supplies and suspending Japanese seafood imports, and Washington did not forcefully stand up for her in public. In May 2026 Washington told Tokyo it was delaying delivery of Tomahawk missiles Japan had purchased more than two years earlier, and in August it temporarily moved its only aircraft carrier permanently deployed outside the United States from East Asia to the Middle East.
Why it matters: The article bears on the theme of US-China competition, arguing that Washington's complacency toward Tokyo risks leaving the United States with less power and influence across the Indo-Pacific.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
The Central African Republic's mineral resources have remained largely stranded because the country lacks direct access to the sea, and a proposal exists to build a 1,350-kilometre rail-line between the CAR and Kribi in neighbouring Cameroon. A&S Resources has reportedly secured $6 billion from an Indian financial institution to develop the railway infrastructure between its mining assets in CAR and Kribi, which is likely to be developed by a Chinese infrastructure company. The company estimates that its Bakala/Topa and Bogoin properties contain more than 20 billion tonnes of predominantly high-grade iron ore, a company estimate rather than a publicly verified source, and exports from the region are unlikely before the early 2030s.
Why it matters: The corridor bears on critical minerals supply chains, since it would offer China and India an additional source of iron ore and strategic minerals.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
A group of 80 countries signed a joint statement calling for shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restored, presented by Bahrain's foreign minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani at a UN Security Council media stakeout on maritime security. The statement urges implementation of Security Council Resolution 2817, adopted on 11 March 2026, which condemns Iran's attacks against Gulf countries and Jordan and addresses threats to maritime navigation through the strait; the resolution was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions, from China and Russia. The signatories called for all vessels to use the strait safely and exercise their navigational rights under international law, and opposed the imposition of tolls or other restrictions on transit.
Why it matters: The statement bears directly on the briefing's maritime security theme, since disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and near Bab al-Mandeb affects trade and energy markets and the conditions under which shipping companies can return.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
European imports of liquefied natural gas are rising ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz threaten to intensify global competition for the fuel. Deliveries to the EU and UK are about 4% lower than a year ago on a 30-day moving average, but have increased since early August, when imports were 30% below last year's levels. Europe is projected to absorb about a quarter of global LNG supplies in September, up from less than 19% in July, according to Kpler.
Why it matters: The shift underscores how energy security concerns are driving competition for LNG supply between Europe and Asia.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The US naval blockade of Iran's southern ports appears to be nearly 100 percent effective, cutting goods flows through Bandar Abbas and other Gulf and southern coast ports that used to handle 80 percent of Iran's trade, while air traffic to the outside world has also largely been cut. With road crossings from Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia facing capacity problems, including as many as 1,800 trucks queuing at the Norduz crossing into Armenia, the text identifies two remaining options for heavy cargo: rail connections through Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea shipping, principally to Russia. Iranian Caspian ports previously handled about 10 percent of Iran's trade, the governor of Gilan said volumes rose 50 percent from March to August, and ship tracking shows about eight vessels a day moving between Astrakhan and Makhachkala and Bandar-e Anzali and Amirabad.
Why it matters: It shows how blockade and sanctions pressure push trade onto longer, lower-capacity corridors, the central dynamic of the trade-and-logistics theme.
chokepoint infrastructure · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned vessel charterers that they must follow its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, saying charterers forcing illegal routes would be added to a non-compliant list and have their vessels' passage restricted. The warning followed Iran's overtures through mediators for terms to reopen the waterway, which Donald Trump rejected, and Iranian claims of cruise missile and drone launches on Sunday that were not supported by independent reports. US Central Command dismissed Iran's claims, while oil markets focused on reports that Saudi Arabia resumed oil shipments through its western pipeline and Qatari mediators continued discussions with the United States and Iran.
Why it matters: The continued dispute over the Strait of Hormuz underscores the fragility of energy security, as oil markets weigh Iranian threats against Saudi Arabia's alternative pipeline shipments and ongoing Qatari mediation.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The European Union is reportedly urging the UK to raise its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, according to a Financial Times report citing sources familiar with the discussions. Brussels has signalled that closer alignment of British trade policy with the EU could be a prerequisite for UK companies to benefit from the planned 'Made in Europe' industrial policy under the EU's Industrial Accelerator Act. The EU has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese battery-electric passenger cars since the end of October 2024, while the UK has not adopted these anti-subsidy tariffs and applies the regular 10 per cent duty.
Why it matters: The report illustrates how trade policy and industrial policy are intertwined in EU-UK relations, as the EU links tariff alignment to participation in 'Made in Europe' rules.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Ukraine's agriculture minister, Taras Vysotskyi, said in Brussels that he sees no positive signs of a ceasefire covering grain exports via the Black Sea in the coming months, and that Russia has so far rejected all proposals from Kyiv's partners. Strikes on port facilities since July have cut Ukraine's exports; alternative routes now account for 45 per cent of what needs to be shipped, with a maximum of 50 per cent of agricultural commodities exportable by those routes, leaving a risk that around 30 million tons will not be exported this marketing year. The European Commission denied Ukraine's request for €220 million for farmers and a liquidity mechanism, though Vysotskyi said a US$250 million low-interest World Bank loan would provide sufficient funding.
Why it matters: It bears on the food security theme: continued attacks on port infrastructure leave more than a quarter of the world's wheat shipments exposed to disruption.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah said foreign investors in critical minerals will be expected to establish processing plants in Namibia and partner with local businesses, and that local participation requirements are being written into law. She did not specify what level or form of local participation the proposed legislation would require. Namibia restricted exports of unprocessed lithium and several other critical minerals in 2023, and since April 2021 Namibians awarded exploration and prospecting licences who dilute their ownership to foreign investors have been required to retain at least a 15% stake.
Why it matters: The measures illustrate how critical minerals policy is being used to capture domestic value addition, a recurring theme in the briefing's coverage of resource nationalism and mineral supply chains.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
China generated less than 50% of its electricity from coal in the six months to June, a first for the country. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Chinese ambassador Wu Peng unveiled the first phase of Ummbila Emoyeni, a Chinese-built wind farm in Mpumalanga province, and environmental groups in Zimbabwe welcomed the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's decision not to fund the $3 billion Sengwa coal-fired project. China has funded about 39 GW of coal electricity around the world, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, and those plants would breach 2040 carbon targets if they operate until the end of their lifespans.
Why it matters: The items bear on the energy transition theme: China's falling domestic coal share contrasts with the overseas coal capacity it has financed, whose operating lifetimes determine whether its pledge holds.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Fighting between Ethiopia's federal army and Tigrayan forces continued in the north of the country and intensified over the weekend of 26-27 September on several fronts. The federal army took control of the road axis just below Alamata in southern Tigray, according to an allied militia, while Tigrayan forces and their allies seized several localities in Afar, including Erebti and Abala. The chief of the Ethiopian army accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the armed groups fighting the federal army, and Sudan's army spokesman rejected the accusation.
Why it matters: The escalation bears on the briefing's conflict and regional-security theme, because the rebels' stated aim of cutting the Djibouti-Addis Ababa road would affect the capital's supply route and because the mutual accusations draw Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt into the war's diplomacy.
geostrategy military basing
A coalition of seven armed groups, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano national movement, has launched an offensive on several fronts against the federal army, with fighting reported in several regions of Ethiopia, including the north. RFI's fact-checking unit found that a video presented as showing the TPLF capturing an Ethiopian army battalion had been taken out of context and had circulated online for at least five years, including a broadcast by the Eritrean outlet Asena TV on 7 July 2021. It also found that an image of a downed drone attributed to the Coalition of Ethiopian Popular Forces for Survival was entirely generated by artificial intelligence, with the detector used indicating Google's Gemini 3.
Why it matters: The episode places the renewed fighting in Ethiopia within the briefing's disinformation theme, since the conflict is accompanied by misleading, decontextualised and AI-generated material circulating on social media.
geostrategy military basing
Noble Corporation has been awarded a contract by Tullow Oil for the 2013-built drillship Noble Faye Kozack, to work offshore Ghana. The contract covers up to 10 wells and is expected to start in mid-2027, after the unit completes work for Petrobras offshore Brazil, where it has been since July 2024. Tullow previously hired the Noble Venturer in November 2025 under a $171m contract for an estimated 360 days across two phases plus a one-well priced option.
Why it matters: The award adds to a sequence of offshore drilling commitments off Ghana, indicating the direction of upstream energy investment by a London-based independent.
supply chain risk
Also reported by: Offshore Energy
Since October 2025, residents of Bille, a fishing village near Port Harcourt in southern Nigeria, have been breathing gas escaping through ageing pipelines buried underground for decades. No state of emergency or disaster has been declared despite several deaths in Bille from pollution combining methane, carbon dioxide and hydrogen, according to scientific assessments. In early September 2026 an explosion destroyed the room of Joy Amos, who was evacuated to Port Harcourt and died of her injuries on 21 September 2026.
Why it matters: It illustrates the environmental and public-health liabilities that ageing energy infrastructure can leave behind in oil- and gas-producing regions.
supply chain risk
Americas
Three officials told NBC that eight Marines were injured in an Iranian cruise missile strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, suffering smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injury symptoms, and all eight have returned to duty. The strike occurred on the 14th and the vessel was not a Navy ship, and the officials declined to identify its name or type. According to the Pentagon's internal database, more than 800 American servicemembers have been injured during the conflict with Iran in the year to date.
Why it matters: The reported injuries bear on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, where American forces are working to maintain the flow of commercial marine traffic.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Bing News: "Strait of Hormuz", gCaptain
The Department of Commerce issued a Temporary Final Rule through its Bureau of Industry and Security, alongside Customs and Border Protection, imposing monitoring and volume caps on foreign polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules entering the country. From December 4, incoming shipments become subject to a 15 percent tariff and established minimum import prices under Section 232 Presidential Proclamation 11052, and importers found bringing in volumes substantially above historical baselines are barred from further entries of covered solar equipment before that date. Importers of record registered after August 6 that lack baseline data face weekly caps between September 22 and December 4, while customs brokers that assist entities in evading the thresholds face monetary penalties or revocation of their licenses.
Why it matters: The measure carries trade policy into the solar supply chain, pairing volume caps and tariff waivers with onshoring commitments to determine where module and component manufacturing capacity is sited.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · green tech supply chain
Also reported by: Bing News: polysilicon solar manufacturing
US and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators on Monday as part of a renewed effort to end seven months of war. Further talks are expected to focus on an amended version of a seven-day proposal Iran presented last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Iran's plan envisages an end to hostilities in Iran and Lebanon, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, an end to sanctions on Iranian oil and the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, after which Iran would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Why it matters: The exchange bears on the briefing's conflict and diplomacy theme, because the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for oil tankers, is both a condition of Iran's ceasefire proposal and the link between the war and global energy supply.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: The Straits Times
Former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman told the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs that Washington’s hostility towards Canada threatens its effort to reduce dependence on Chinese minerals. He said the United States has the money and political will to invest in mineral supplies but needs Canadian and Australian mining expertise to develop them. China accounted for 91% of global refined rare earth output in 2024, compared with 60% of mined production, according to the International Energy Agency.
Why it matters: The warning highlights the critical minerals theme, showing that US efforts to counter China’s processing dominance are constrained by its own trade disputes with allied suppliers such as Canada.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The United States and the People’s Republic of China are engaged in a strategic competition for scientific and technological leadership. To compete with the United States, China is prioritizing the expansion of its high-tech industries by strategically engaging markets in the Global South. The paper argues that the United States must strengthen its tech-centric engagement with countries across the Global South, guided by goals that include outcompeting China in tech-based exchange and coordinating with partners.
Why it matters: The paper frames technology and the Global South as a central arena of US-China strategic competition, linking tech-based engagement to trade, standards, and access to critical minerals.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
President Donald Trump said US officials held talks on Monday with mediators seeking to end the war between Washington and Iran, and told reporters in the Oval Office that the United States would win the war "very soon". He said petrol prices would fall sharply once the United States won. Earlier on Monday a US official said the continuing talks between the United States and Iran were positive and constructive, but that no agreement would be reached unless the nuclear file was addressed, adding that Iran had shown flexibility on nuclear issues while the two sides remained divided over the timing of commitments and which steps each side should take first.
Why it matters: The remarks bear on energy security, because Trump tied the outcome of the war to a sharp fall in petrol prices and the US official linked sanctions relief and frozen funds to progress on the nuclear file.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry