Energy and minerals chokepoints dominate the day. Record tanker freight from the United States to Japan, Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities and Ukraine's strike on a Rosneft refinery all feed fuel prices, while Britain widens sanctions on Russia's oil industry even as Washington weighs easing shadow-fleet tanker restrictions and Russian diesel reaches global markets. In Asia-Pacific, South Korea's summit with Central Asian presidents and Japan's seabed rare-earth work with the United States aim at processing beyond China; in Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola's output and the African Minerals Strategy Group's push for local value addition point the same way. France's help for Saudi Arabia shows energy security driving policy.
Value chains & chokepoints
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Togo's President of the Council of Ministers Faure Gnassingbe at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 13, 2026. Xi said accepting the principle that African resources belong to Africa is a precondition. The same text notes that Ghana's draft mining bill would allow the mines minister to require mining companies to issue the state a free special share with veto rights over key transactions.
Why it matters: The framing of African resource ownership as a condition of cooperation sits within the briefing's China-Global South theme, where Chinese engagement with African states and their minerals is negotiated.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asian shipping stocks fell on Thursday after reports that Washington is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers. COSCO Shipping Energy dropped more than 13% in Hong Kong, while China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy's Shanghai-listed shares and China Merchants Nanjing Tanker hit their 10% daily downward limits in mainland trading. The reports say the Trump administration is discussing exemptions allowing blacklisted tankers linked to Russia, Iran and Venezuela to carry oil and petroleum products not themselves subject to American sanctions, with Treasury approval required to employ the vessels; no formal easing has yet been announced.
Why it matters: The proposal sits at the intersection of the briefing's sanctions and energy trade theme, since relief for shadow-fleet tankers would bear on both freight markets and the constraints on Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil revenues.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Reykjavík, Iceland, following a recently secured deal with the Kingdom of Denmark concerning Greenland. The agreement gives Washington the authority to block non-NATO commercial and military presence in Greenland, a direct role in screening foreign investment in critical sectors, overflight, missile defense access and unrestricted undersea access across Greenland's territorial waters. After Rubio's discussions with the Panamanians, a Panamanian court ruled that the contract to operate the container terminals at the canal's Pacific and Atlantic entrances violated the constitution, and it ended the contract.
Why it matters: The commentary presents the Greenland and Panama outcomes as gains in great-power competition, in which control of sea lanes and Arctic shipping routes carries leverage over trade, resources and power projection.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Western powers and companies are seeking monazite ore as an alternative source of rare earths, a market in which Chinese firms control roughly 90 percent of rare-earth oxides and rare-earth metals. Monazite typically contains radioactive thorium and sometimes uranium, so its handling, storage, and processing are tightly regulated. Major investment is flowing to monazite mines and processing technologies, including in the United States, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere, though a Saskatchewan plant has faced delays.
Why it matters: The article bears on the critical minerals and supply chains themes, because monazite is central to efforts to build rare-earth supply chains outside China.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Shipping a supertanker of crude from the United States to Japan is expected to cost $81 million in late November, compared with an average of $9.1 million last year, translating to $40.50 per barrel. Freight rates now account for more than 40% of the price of US oil, up from 7% on average in 2025, as attacks on ships related to the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war have boosted freight and insurance rates. Rates to move oil from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to Asia surged to a record high around $34 per barrel this week.
Why it matters: The record oil shipping costs illustrate how conflict-driven disruptions in energy chokepoints feed into global inflation.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
The October edition of the digital magazine MINE examines how geopolitical tensions, shifting trade relationships and technological innovation are reshaping mineral supply chains and mining operations. Its main section covers the impact of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz on iron ore supplies, China's changing procurement strategy and the implications for Australian producers, and how European tungsten projects are responding to export controls and the search for alternative supply sources. The issue also includes analysis of disruption to coal markets and the outlook for 2027, and an Australian supplement on copper recovery from mining waste, lower energy and water consumption technologies, and the manganese sector.
Why it matters: The edition frames European tungsten projects and Chinese procurement shifts as responses to export controls and geopolitical tension, placing mineral supply chains at the centre of the briefing's coverage.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
South Korea held its first summit with all five Central Asian presidents in Seoul on September 16, upgrading cooperation previously conducted mainly through bilateral relations and ministerial-level mechanisms to a common presidential format. An inaugural C5+1 Industry Ministers' Meeting created a multilateral channel whose stated areas of work include industrial infrastructure, critical-mineral supply chains, technology cooperation, talent development, refining, smelting and higher-value processing. Matteo Fumagalli of the University of St Andrews is cited as seeing the emphasis on resilience as an addition to longstanding Korean priorities rather than a change of direction.
Why it matters: The framework's value for critical minerals and supply-chain security depends on whether Korean investment leaves processing capacity, engineering expertise and trained workers in Central Asia rather than increasing mineral exports alone.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
In August 2026, Japan and the United States worked together to explore extracting rare-earth-rich mud from the seabed near Minamitorishima. The article states that China's rare earth leverage comes less from geology than from its position in refining, separation and magnet production, combined with regulatory instruments such as the April 2025 export control measures on several medium and heavy rare-earth-related items. It adds that studies of Fe-Mn crusts and polymetallic nodules in the South China Sea have identified cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements and yttrium, and that China adopted a national law on deep seabed resource exploration and development in 2016 and holds exploration contracts with the International Seabed Authority.
Why it matters: The article argues that as critical minerals competition acquires a maritime dimension, seabed resources could add a supply-chain and national security layer to existing South China Sea disputes over sovereignty, jurisdiction and access.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Africa holds 55 percent of the world’s cobalt, 47.65 percent of its manganese, 21.6 percent of its graphite, 5.9 percent of its copper, and 0.6 percent of its iron ore. Africa is a priority in India-Japan discussions on economic security and supply chains, and the India-Japan Joint Declaration on Economic Security Cooperation places it within the partnership’s formal architecture. Backed by the India-Japan Joint Economic Forum, a JETRO strategic report, and renewed focus on the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, India and Japan are positioning themselves to deepen cooperation in critical minerals, digital infrastructure, healthcare, green energy, and resilient supply chains across the Global South.
Why it matters: This matters for critical minerals and supply chains, as India and Japan seek to reduce dependence on China by linking African resources to Asian processing and manufacturing.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
In the first eight months of 2026, China escalated coercive activity at multiple points along much of the first island chain, from the Senkaku Islands through the waters around Taiwan to Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The article asks whether Beijing is continuing a long-term trajectory of incremental coercion or exploiting a more permissive strategic environment created by United States preoccupation with the Middle East and the relative stabilization of United States-China relations since the Trump-Xi summit in Busan. Confrontations began on July 20 at Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine officials said Chinese personnel struck a member of the Philippines navy with a wooden baton, and on July 23 the Chinese Coast Guard said it had driven away Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal.
Why it matters: The incidents bear on the theme of strategic competition, as they test whether a more permissive environment allows Beijing to raise pressure on United States allies and partners without provoking a response.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing · chokepoint maritime
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The UN Security Council condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on King Khalid International Airport on October 10 and 11 and strikes on other airports and Saudi Aramco facilities, which caused civilian deaths and injuries. Members expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and underlined its right to self-defense in line with international law, and reiterated their condemnation of attacks and threats against commercial navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The statement called for full implementation of Resolution 2216 and for practical cooperation, including with the government of Yemen, to prevent the Houthis from obtaining weapons and other military assistance, and demanded that they immediately halt their military escalation.
Why it matters: The statement frames the Houthi campaign within the briefing's maritime security theme, connecting the Yemen conflict to the safety of commercial vessels and their crews in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: Red Sea shipping attacks, The Straits Times
The US Treasury Department extended a sanctions waiver on Lukoil, allowing the Russian oil company's service operations outside Russia to continue until April 2027. The new general licence permits Lukoil petrol stations, including those in the US, to serve customers until April 25, 2027, and replaces a previous licence that was set to expire this month. A separate licence authorised certain transactions for Lukoil Bulgaria's firms over the same period.
Why it matters: The waiver sustains a sanctions exemption for Lukoil's operations outside Russia, affecting energy-market access amid elevated oil and diesel prices.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English)
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia target infrastructure and investment events in order to press Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to meet Houthi demands in Yemen and to persuade US President Donald Trump to ease the US blockade on Iran, according to Saudi, Iranian and regional sources. The attacks have disrupted Riyadh's flagship oil conference and the Future Investment Initiative, and included strikes on King Khalid International Airport and on Saudi Aramco. A Houthi spokesperson denied the group was acting at Iran's behest, saying its demands centred on longstanding humanitarian issues relating to Saudi Arabia.
Why it matters: The campaign converts Saudi economic exposure into leverage, tying the confrontation to energy security and to the shipping routes running from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Britain expanded its sanctions against Russia's oil industry on October 8 as part of a package of 38 targets, adding oil companies Zarubezhneft and INK Capital, 12 shadow-fleet tankers, three cryptocurrency exchanges and two payment platforms. The British government says the measures bring more than 90% of Russia's oil production capacity under UK sanctions, though it notes this does not mean an equivalent share of production has stopped. The Trump administration is considering easing restrictions on sanctioned tankers to reduce record-high freight rates, while Britain is urging allies to tighten restrictions on shipping services supporting Russia's oil trade.
Why it matters: The divergence between British and American measures creates an increasingly complicated sanctions environment for shipping companies, whose vessels and commercial partners may remain subject to UK and European restrictions even if Washington relaxes its own.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
France said on Thursday it had begun deploying military means to help Saudi Arabia, which is under attack by Houthi rebels, while Britain and Italy have offered modest military help. Foreign Ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux said France was starting to put into action operational elements of an agreement to help protect Saudi oil facilities, and declined to elaborate on what military means were being sent. Germany has not declared any military support, although its parliament voted to extend its involvement in an EU naval mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea, and Poland has announced no military aid to Saudi Arabia.
Why it matters: The deployments and offers place European military posture in the Gulf alongside energy security, since the effect of the conflict on energy prices is a stated consideration in European decisions.
geostrategy military basing · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The International Energy Agency said its March pledge to release crude oil stocks will exceed its target and that it will accelerate the release of the remaining supplies. Members have so far released 330 million barrels, and the remaining 100 million barrels, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel, will be released in a timely manner consistent with national circumstances, taking total releases above the initial 400 million barrels pledged in March. Oil prices rose after the announcement, with Brent adding 0.15 per cent to $106.20 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate jumping 3.28 per cent to $98.21 a barrel.
Why it matters: The release shows consuming states using co-ordinated emergency stocks as an instrument of energy security while the war in Iran continues to constrain supplies.
supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Moses Engadu, secretary-general of the African Minerals Strategy Group, said Africa holds more than 30% of global critical-mineral reserves while only about 20% of its territory has been explored. He said the continent's priorities are intensifying geological surveys and exploration, harmonising policies and legislation among African states, and moving from exporting raw minerals to processing, manufacturing and local value addition. He named financing, infrastructure and a shortage of capital for investment as among the biggest obstacles to developing African mining.
Why it matters: It sets out an African institutional position on critical-minerals supply and local value addition, two themes that shape the global energy transition.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Tonnes of cotton are blocked at the port of Abidjan, one of the main exit points for West African production, because of port congestion. Johanna Adotevi, commercial director of Ivoire Coton and Faso Coton, says the congestion began at the end of May after exports resumed following a wave of cotton orders from Bangladesh, and that waiting times have reached up to three months where three weeks is normal. She puts Ivoire Coton's exposure at about 30 billion CFA francs (roughly 45.7 million euros) for 3,000 tonnes that are blocked, while Kassoum Koné, commercial director of the Ivorian cotton company and current president of the African Cotton Association, says growers are waiting for containers to be exported before they are paid.
Why it matters: The backlog shows how trade logistics bottlenecks at a single West African port transmit financial risk along the entire cotton supply chain, from growers to international traders.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Two officers were killed and nine soldiers wounded on 14 October in clashes in the Tibesti region, at Miski, a gold-mining area in conflict for nearly ten years over the distribution of mining revenues. The fighting opposed the Miski self-defence committee and the national brigade for the control of mining activities. The general staff called on the self-defence committee to hand over its weapons immediately, warning that failure to obey would be treated as an act of rebellion, while the committee deplored the loss of life, offered its condolences and maintained its demands, including the withdrawal of the mining brigade's coordinator and the application of the agreement signed on 20 April 2025.
Why it matters: The clashes bear on the conflict and security theme, since disputes over mining revenue in the Tibesti have repeatedly produced armed confrontation between local self-defence groups and state forces.
critical minerals
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote said his group is not concerned about carrying out a planned refinery in Kenya, describing the investment as worth $16 billion and the largest in that country. A Kenyan court lifted on Wednesday an earlier order that had halted the Lamu refinery project, after finding that 133 residents who challenged it had identified the wrong plot of land, and adjourned the case to 24 November. The dispute over land rights remains unresolved, and the planned refinery, at 700,000 barrels per day, would be Africa's second largest after Dangote's 650,000 bpd plant.
Why it matters: The ruling clears one legal obstacle but not the underlying land claim, leaving the timing of a $16 billion energy infrastructure investment in Kenya unsettled.
supply chain risk
Ivory Coast has given itself six months to eradicate illegal gold mining, and in recent weeks Ivorian authorities have multiplied operations to dismantle clandestine sites. RFI followed a unit of the BSSI, the special surveillance and intervention brigade attached to the Ministry of Water and Forests, near Mouyassué in the Sud-Comoé region, more than 200 km east of Abidjan on the border with Ghana, where dredges were burned and crushing units destroyed. Since 2021, more than 8,500 illegal gold mining sites have been cleared, and officers said the proximity of Ghana, where miners retreat during operations, complicates the fight.
Why it matters: The operation illustrates the resource governance theme, since enforcement against unlicensed extraction on a shared border depends on cooperation with the neighbouring state.
critical minerals
Angola's president said in his annual state of the nation address to lawmakers in Luanda that the oil and gas sector remains central to the country's economy and public finances, and that measures are being implemented to keep production above 1 million barrels a day. He said the government continues efforts to diversify the economy away from oil, which accounts for more than 90% of export revenue, and that the economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter, driven by a 6.2% expansion in the non-oil sector. Public debt fell to 51.2% of gross domestic product in 2026 from 115.9% in 2020, he said, while structural challenges such as the low level of formalization of the economy remain.
Why it matters: The effort to hold crude output above 1 million barrels a day illustrates the energy security and fiscal stakes for a producer whose oil revenue funds most of the state, even as non-oil growth and debt reduction shift the economy's centre of gravity.
supply chain risk
Americas
Ukraine struck a Russian oil refinery on Thursday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv was done supporting a ceasefire on energy targets announced by US President Donald Trump and ignored by Russia. The target was a refinery in the Ryazan region southeast of Moscow, owned by state oil major Rosneft and accounting for nearly 5% of Russia's refinery throughput. Russia had continued missile and drone strikes on energy targets, and Zelenskiy told the Financial Times that the block on attacking refineries was out.
Why it matters: The collapse of the energy truce and Ukraine's strike on a Russian refinery bear on energy security, as they affect fuel supply and global diesel prices.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy, Foreign Policy
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian diesel had begun reaching global markets following an agreement with US President Donald Trump, and that it was expected to help stabilise oil markets without fully stabilising them. LSEG data showed Russia had resumed diesel export loadings from the Baltic port of Primorsk, with a tanker carrying around 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulphur diesel heading towards Morocco. Under terms announced by Trump, Russia agreed to release more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately and an additional 500,000 metric tons in November, and the US Treasury Department issued a license authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel through April 7, 2027.
Why it matters: The arrangement bears on the energy theme, since a US licence reopens Russian diesel flows to world markets while European and Ukrainian officials argue that unlocking Russian energy revenues fuels the Kremlin's war effort.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Taiwan's government confirmed it plans to buy six million tonnes per annum of LNG from the Alaska LNG megaproject and intends to invest $4.4 billion in the system's construction, subject to further negotiations. President Donald Trump said Taiwan had agreed to an offtake commitment equal to 30 percent of the plant's output. Taiwan's energy ministry said specific investment arrangements, shareholding ratios and related conditions would be handled through subsequent negotiations and commercial contract procedures.
Why it matters: The proposed investment illustrates how energy security concerns are shaping investment commitments between the United States and its Asian allies.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Russia is developing a satellite network, Rassvet, as a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink, managed by Bureau 1440. The project is intended as a major upgrade for Russian military communications in Ukraine after Starlink disabled unauthorized terminals used by Kremlin forces at the start of 2026, and Russia has contracted Chinese satellite manufacturing through Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology. Ukrainian officials warn that Rassvet poses threats to Ukraine, Europe, and the wider world.
Why it matters: The Rassvet project matters for the security theme because it links Russian military communications to a technological alignment with China, Iran, and North Korea.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Hundreds of people rallied in Hargeisa on October 14 after US President Donald Trump described Somaliland as "a totally different country" from Somalia. Somaliland's Minister of the Presidency, Khadar Hussein Abdi, and the foreign ministry welcomed the remark, while the presidency's official account said it underscored Somaliland's distinct identity. Israel is the only country to have recognised Somaliland, in December 2025, and Hargeisa has offered Washington exclusive mining rights and possible military access at Berbera, while the State Department has reaffirmed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.
Why it matters: The exchange shows recognition of a breakaway territory being pursued through geoeconomics, with mining rights, port access and troop offers used as instruments of diplomatic bargaining.
critical minerals · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Two US officials and a Western official briefed on the matter said the order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations came from inside the White House, and that leaders at the Defense Department received a message that the SpaceX Starshield service for the Ukrainian military needed to be slowed. The officials did not specify who in the White House made the decision or who was responsible for implementing it. Ukrainian officials said military-grade Starlink receptors stopped working when mounted on fast-moving objects, interfering with drones that rely on them for onboard guidance, and a person in Ukraine's Defence Ministry said on Oct 15 that the receptors were then working in motion only at speeds of up to 160kmh.
Why it matters: The restrictions fall within the briefing's US–Ukraine relations theme, because a battlefield communications service owned by the US government and operated by a US company has become an instrument of Washington's leverage over Kyiv amid US pressure to halt strikes on Russian refineries.
supply chain risk · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry